NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	117		Excitement	4.6 [871]		MVP	Moritz Wagner (ORL): +13.0%
New Orleans Pelicans	108		Comeback	1.9 [319]		LVP	CJ McCollum (NOP): -8.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moritz Wagner	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.17	0.01	0.05	9	86%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.01	7	87%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Paolo Banchero	0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.03	-0.04	24	52%	0.12	3	-0.04	13	77%	0.01
Jalen Suggs	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Franz Wagner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	14	71%	0.17	4	-0.12	6	83%	-0.00
Markelle Fultz	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Cole Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	6	42%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	0.01	0.06	8	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.04	0.03	7	67%	0.08	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	73%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	73%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Matt Ryan	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hawkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	3	0%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	16	42%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.12	-0.03	0.17	24	61%	-0.01	4	-0.07	11	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	25.9	14.8	30.5	2.4	33.5	136.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +43.5%

NOP -7.0%

ORL +13.7%

ORL +0.6%

NOP -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOP	NBA	ORL	NOP	NBA
this game	15.8	14.6	14.5	123.2	114.9	113.9
season	15.1	14.4		111.8	114.8
opponent	14.7	14.4		111.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.9	14.6	14.1	19.0	15.8
NOP	15.4	14.2	15.9	12.9	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paolo Banchero	75	74	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	5	-1	15.1	18.7	-3.63	15.1	13.0	2.02
Franz Wagner	66	65	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	10	-11	15.3	17.0	-1.63	15.0	13.8	1.22
Jonathan Isaac	43	44	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.12	15	-6	21	16.7	15.1	1.67	14.2	15.0	-0.86
Jalen Suggs	60	60	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	9	-9	15.2	16.9	-1.76	14.8	14.3	0.59
Gary Harris	60	61	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	9	-9	15.2	16.9	-1.76	15.0	14.0	1.03
Cole Anthony	35	34	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.02	9	0	9	16.9	15.2	1.76	14.3	14.8	-0.59
Wendell Carter Jr.	48	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	13	-17	15.1	16.6	-1.55	14.8	14.5	0.34
Markelle Fultz	29	29	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.12	10	-1	11	17.0	15.3	1.63	13.8	15.0	-1.22
Moritz Wagner	30	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	3	3	17.4	15.1	2.24	13.5	15.1	-1.62
Joe Ingles	29	28	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	3	3	17.5	15.1	2.38	14.3	14.8	-0.50

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Ryan	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	0.0	14.6	-14.64	1.0	16.0	-14.99
Jordan Hawkins	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	0.0	14.6	-14.64	1.0	16.0	-14.99
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	21	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-11	13	13.4	15.0	-1.56	18.0	15.1	2.86
Zion Williamson	58	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-8	7	15.0	14.1	0.85	15.7	16.1	-0.40
CJ McCollum	80	83	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.33	3	-12	15	14.4	15.8	-1.35	15.7	16.8	-1.15
Jonas Valanciunas	35	35	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-5	1	16.4	13.6	2.81	15.1	16.2	-1.09
Dyson Daniels	43	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.21	-18	9	-27	14.1	15.1	-0.96	15.9	15.8	0.13
Herbert Jones	78	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-5	1	14.9	13.4	1.45	16.0	14.8	1.23
Larry Nance Jr.	28	26	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.11	-16	7	-23	14.9	14.5	0.41	15.6	15.9	-0.35
Naji Marshall	54	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-3	-3	14.1	15.4	-1.33	15.5	16.2	-0.69
Trey Murphy III	73	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.26	-5	-4	-1	14.5	15.3	-0.83	16.2	14.5	1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.26,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 116, MEM 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.48,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
SAC 108, LAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.16,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
MIN 102, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.57,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.1%