NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	100		Excitement	5.6 [688]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +30.2%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	1.7 [978]		LVP	Bojan Bogdanovic (NYK): -6.5%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miles McBride	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.04	-0.03	9	55%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	23	53%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Alec Burks	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	11	62%	0.14	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01
Donte DiVincenzo	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.03	0.05	10	80%	0.12	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Jericho Sims	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.27	0.07	0.04	16	91%	0.33	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.12	-0.02	23	57%	0.26	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	20	52%	0.05	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.04	9	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	28.9	14.0	25.0	1.5	37.5	132.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +12.8%

DEN +7.8%

DEN +15.0%

DEN +10.3%

DEN +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	DEN	NBA	NYK	DEN	NBA
this game	16.0	15.7	14.5	111.1	122.8	113.9
season	15.6	15.0		116.8	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.4		111.6	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	18.6	17.4	16.2	12.2	16.0
DEN	13.5	15.4	16.5	17.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jericho Sims	16	15	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.06	10	-23	33	14.6	16.3	-1.66	18.9	15.0	3.91
Bojan Bogdanovic	27	27	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.13	7	-20	27	14.8	16.5	-1.68	16.6	15.3	1.26
Alec Burks	39	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.18	4	-17	21	14.8	16.9	-2.11	16.3	15.2	1.17
Precious Achiuwa	50	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-11	9	15.3	16.8	-1.46	14.8	16.8	-2.02
Donte DiVincenzo	57	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.07	-17	4	-21	16.8	14.5	2.33	15.2	16.4	-1.19
Miles McBride	83	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	-2	-9	16.0	16.3	-0.32	15.6	15.9	-0.21
Isaiah Hartenstein	47	50	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.09	-15	2	-17	16.5	15.5	1.00	16.2	15.1	1.09
Jalen Brunson	64	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.04	-20	7	-27	16.5	14.8	1.72	15.1	17.1	-1.97
Josh Hart	67	67	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	0.04	-21	8	-29	16.5	14.6	1.85	15.4	16.3	-0.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	74	74	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.05	30	-17	47	15.3	17.1	-1.80	16.3	14.6	1.66
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	69	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.07	24	-11	35	15.0	18.0	-2.97	16.5	14.3	2.22
Aaron Gordon	68	66	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.08	22	-9	31	15.0	17.4	-2.37	16.5	14.5	2.03
Michael Porter Jr.	70	70	0.71	-0.21	0.91	-0.03	25	-12	37	15.4	16.5	-1.10	16.1	15.6	0.44
Jamal Murray	65	62	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	4	5	16.3	14.2	2.04	16.2	15.4	0.81
Reggie Jackson	24	27	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	6	1	15.0	15.9	-0.95	15.7	16.1	-0.35
Justin Holiday	19	18	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.10	-10	23	-33	16.9	15.3	1.62	14.9	16.3	-1.38
Christian Braun	27	25	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.12	-14	27	-41	16.4	15.4	1.05	14.2	16.7	-2.48
Peyton Watson	25	23	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	0.08	-13	26	-39	16.8	15.2	1.62	15.0	16.3	-1.33
DeAndre Jordan	17	16	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	0.05	-15	28	-43	17.9	15.1	2.79	14.6	16.3	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.92,0.82,0.81,0.68,0.9,0.81,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 101, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	93.9%
ATL 87, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.78,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.87,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.8%
WAS 128, DEN 141	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%