NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	115		Excitement	7.1 [404]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +38.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Comeback	2.6 [646]		LVP	Jordan McLaughlin (MIN): -9.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.38	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.38	0.14	0.24	0.00	15	74%	0.45	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.21	0.17	0.05	0.01	22	70%	0.31	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.00
Jamal Murray	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	56%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	69%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	10	56%	0.06	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Peyton Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	22%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.32	0.32	0.20	0.13	0.01	13	79%	0.36	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.06
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	7	65%	0.15	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	9	60%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	6	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
T.J. Warren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.00	26	56%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Luka Garza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.01	11	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	7	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	25.4	15.3	24.7	2.5	37.5	131.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +49.6%

DEN +14.8%

DEN +8.1%

MIN -24.4%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.1	14.5	118.6	114.3	113.9
season	15.0	14.8		116.4	114.5
opponent	14.7	14.6		108.0	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.1	15.5	17.0	16.6	15.5
MIN	15.2	13.9	12.5	14.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	77	77	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.54	8	-5	13	15.2	16.6	-1.48	14.0	14.3	-0.33
Nikola Jokic	77	77	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.54	8	-5	13	15.2	16.6	-1.48	14.0	14.3	-0.33
Michael Porter Jr.	64	64	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.52	8	-5	13	15.7	14.9	0.81	14.2	13.7	0.51
Reggie Jackson	33	34	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.16	17	-14	31	14.3	16.1	-1.73	16.0	13.1	2.91
Justin Holiday	33	34	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-7	17	15.7	15.4	0.34	16.3	12.9	3.36
Jamal Murray	66	66	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.23	-11	14	-25	16.1	14.2	1.83	13.2	15.9	-2.68
Peyton Watson	33	34	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.11	-5	8	-13	14.9	15.7	-0.81	13.7	14.2	-0.51
Christian Braun	36	37	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.11	-6	9	-15	15.1	15.7	-0.67	13.6	14.4	-0.77
Aaron Gordon	66	67	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.10	-14	17	-31	16.3	13.7	2.55	13.3	15.8	-2.49

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	58	57	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.25	10	-13	23	14.2	13.8	0.42	16.8	13.6	3.15
T.J. Warren	21	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-3	3	13.0	14.4	-1.36	12.5	16.4	-3.91
Jordan McLaughlin	39	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	2	-7	14.4	13.9	0.52	15.0	15.8	-0.81
Kyle Anderson	51	52	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-3	3	14.2	13.9	0.34	16.2	14.7	1.51
Luka Garza	47	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	0	-3	13.9	14.2	-0.34	14.7	16.2	-1.51
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	75	75	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-1	-1	14.1	13.9	0.21	15.7	14.8	0.85
Jaden McDaniels	75	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-3	3	14.3	13.4	0.89	16.4	12.7	3.62
Monte Morris	47	47	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	4	-11	13.8	14.3	-0.55	14.5	16.4	-1.87
Anthony Edwards	77	77	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.54	-8	5	-13	14.0	14.3	-0.33	15.2	16.6	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.69,0.47,0.18,0.19,0.1,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 111, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.34,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.52,0.4,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.31,0.08,0.02,0.02,0	92.6%
HOU 99, LAL 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.3,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.29,0.13,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	92.3%
DEN 101, NYK 96	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.45,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.25,0.1,0.06,0.02,0	91.4%