NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	105		Excitement	6.9 [453]		MVP	AJ Green (MIL): +23.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	114		Comeback	3.6 [626]		LVP	Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI): -12.4%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Maxey	0.12	0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	23	61%	0.16	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Buddy Hield	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.02	6	75%	0.12	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.06	-0.02	5	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	6	108%	0.18	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	11	58%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
KJ Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mo Bamba	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.05	-0.01	0.05	7	71%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.00
Paul Reed	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	13	32%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.11	-0.01	8	74%	0.23	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.09	0.02	12	76%	0.37	7	-0.21	18	78%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	5	75%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	12	79%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	16	52%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.12	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.0	32.4	14.6	26.1	1.6	34.2	134.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +28.2%

MIL +23.7%

MIL +15.1%

PHI -9.7%

PHI -7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIL	NBA	PHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.9	14.9	14.5	116.7	125.3	113.9
season	14.9	14.3		115.6	117.0
opponent	14.3	14.5		114.8	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	16.2	16.0	17.7	18.0	16.9
MIL	13.8	14.7	16.6	14.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
KJ Martin	26	28	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.02	8	-17	25	15.0	17.7	-2.68	15.1	14.8	0.31
Cameron Payne	24	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-8	7	17.3	16.8	0.53	14.3	15.1	-0.73
Buddy Hield	41	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-11	13	16.0	17.7	-1.65	14.3	15.4	-1.04
Mo Bamba	41	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-8	7	17.5	16.5	1.00	15.9	14.1	1.84
Paul Reed	47	47	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-5	1	16.6	17.3	-0.77	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Tobias Harris	53	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	3	-15	17.3	16.4	0.87	14.5	15.4	-0.91
Kyle Lowry	49	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.06	-11	2	-13	17.3	16.5	0.84	15.0	14.8	0.16
Tyrese Maxey	67	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.19	-8	-1	-7	17.3	16.0	1.21	15.0	14.5	0.57
Kelly Oubre Jr.	63	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-5	1	16.8	17.4	-0.61	14.5	15.8	-1.31
Nicolas Batum	39	38	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.07	-14	5	-19	17.6	16.5	1.14	15.6	14.4	1.14

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	70	70	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.16	23	-14	37	15.0	14.5	0.48	18.0	13.2	4.75
Brook Lopez	68	69	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.13	23	-14	37	14.8	15.1	-0.32	18.0	13.6	4.40
AJ Green	54	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	8	-7	14.8	15.1	-0.32	16.6	17.4	-0.83
Pat Connaughton	57	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	6	-3	14.6	15.4	-0.88	16.2	18.1	-1.91
Bobby Portis	43	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.24	-1	10	-11	14.8	15.0	-0.14	15.4	18.3	-2.89
Jae Crowder	35	35	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	5	-1	15.6	14.4	1.15	17.3	16.7	0.65
Giannis Antetokounmpo	69	68	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.08	-4	13	-17	14.9	14.9	0.03	16.9	17.0	-0.01
Patrick Beverley	47	47	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	8	-7	15.3	14.5	0.80	17.0	16.9	0.16
Danilo Gallinari	12	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	14	-19	13.5	15.1	-1.60	13.5	17.4	-3.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.28,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.58,0.59,0.8,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 105, MIA 110	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.63,0.56,0.4,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.77,0.95,1	93.4%
TOR 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.24,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.93,0.84,0.91,0.96,1	92.8%
BOS 94, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.62,0.63,0.8,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.92,1	92.4%