NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	5.7 [658]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +21.9%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.8 [674]		LVP	Patty Mills (MIA): -11.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.17	0.07	0.02	16	74%	0.22	1	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.11	-0.00	3	117%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	11	57%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Peyton Watson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	7	43%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	9	50%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	14	47%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zeke Nnaji	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	63%	0.07	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	55%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	15	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	16	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	3.3	32.3	15.0	22.7	2.8	27.2	125.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +57.2%

MIA -3.2%

MIA -4.1%

MIA -2.5%

DEN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	15.1	14.5	112.4	96.7	113.9
season	15.0	14.9		116.2	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.6		111.0	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	16.6	17.4	20.1	16.9
MIA	14.6	14.1	16.1	15.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	61	61	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.12	17	-5	22	17.4	15.8	1.56	15.4	14.6	0.79
Christian Braun	35	36	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	5	2	18.1	16.1	2.07	15.8	14.7	1.16
Nikola Jokic	69	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	2	8	17.2	15.7	1.53	14.8	16.3	-1.56
Jamal Murray	60	61	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	4	4	16.1	18.6	-2.52	14.9	15.7	-0.80
Peyton Watson	42	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	10	-8	16.4	17.4	-1.00	15.8	14.5	1.24
Reggie Jackson	33	35	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	5	2	18.3	16.0	2.30	14.8	15.3	-0.54
Michael Porter Jr.	62	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.08	10	2	8	16.9	16.8	0.16	15.1	15.3	-0.22
Justin Holiday	25	26	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	13	-14	16.4	17.1	-0.68	15.1	15.1	-0.02
Zeke Nnaji	10	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	14	-16	13.8	17.3	-3.48	14.0	15.3	-1.29
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	48	48	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	10	-8	16.2	17.7	-1.52	15.1	15.1	0.03

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	31	32	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.07	1	-13	14	15.2	15.1	0.04	15.6	17.6	-1.97
Duncan Robinson	58	58	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	-8	4	15.0	15.4	-0.41	16.9	16.8	0.12
Haywood Highsmith	14	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-9	6	14.0	15.3	-1.34	18.8	16.6	2.20
Patty Mills	28	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-13	14	15.2	15.1	0.07	16.1	17.2	-1.11
Bam Adebayo	64	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	0	-12	15.1	15.1	0.03	17.0	16.5	0.57
Terry Rozier	65	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	-1	-10	15.1	15.1	0.02	17.2	16.1	1.07
Thomas Bryant	27	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-12	12	15.1	15.1	-0.03	16.5	17.0	-0.57
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	54	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	-6	0	15.6	14.5	1.13	16.6	17.3	-0.75
Jimmy Butler	67	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.20	-12	0	-12	14.9	15.7	-0.84	17.1	16.2	0.94
Caleb Martin	47	44	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.20	-14	2	-16	15.4	14.9	0.52	17.2	16.5	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.11,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 121, MEM 119	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.16,0.15,0.26,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.06,0.01,0	94.0%
NJN 83, CHA 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.28,0.32,0.1,0.09,0.01,0	92.7%
MIA 101, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.5%