inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 108 Excitement7.8 [309] MVPTerry Rozier (MIA): +30.0%
Dallas Mavericks 114 Comeback2.9 [624] LVPBam Adebayo (MIA): -20.6%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Terry Rozier0.300,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.29,0.30.210.120.031775%0.3000.002100%0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.0.150,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.150.110.030.00781%0.1500.002100%0.02
Duncan Robinson0.140,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.140.17-0.030.001095%0.151-0.0100%0.00
Caleb Martin0.100,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.10.080.020.00962%0.1000.00367%-0.01
Thomas Bryant-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.010.000.00333%-0.0100.0000%0.00
Haywood Highsmith-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.03-0.000.00425%-0.0300.0000%0.00
Jimmy Butler-0.050,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.080.03-0.001254%0.126-0.16250%-0.01
Nikola Jovic-0.080,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.07-0.03-0.01633%-0.042-0.0400%0.00
Bam Adebayo-0.210,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.22,-0.21-0.06-0.15-0.011439%-0.181-0.03850%-0.05

Dallas Mavericks
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Dante Exum0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.270.270.110.14-0.01587%0.271-0.015100%0.03
Luka Doncic0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.2,0.20.200.150.060.012467%0.354-0.154100%0.03
Daniel Gafford0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.120.120.100.030.01586%0.1200.00450%-0.02
Kyrie Irving0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.040.040.06-0.010.011957%0.152-0.112100%0.01
Dereck Lively II0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.030.020.010.00367%0.0300.0000%0.00
Maxi Kleber0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.010.01-0.01350%0.0200.0000%0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.01-0.000.030.011142%0.0100.00475%-0.01
Josh Green0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01333%-0.0100.0000%0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.00-0.00217%-0.031-0.02250%-0.01
P.J. Washington0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08-0.08-0.04-0.040.001238%-0.061-0.03250%-0.00
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game24.02.833.215.731.12.732.6142.0
league avg25.82.328.015.028.22.332.4135.2
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
DAL +18.5%
DAL +12.7%
DAL +20.6%
MIA -1.7%
MIA -0.1%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIADALNBAMIADALNBA
this game16.014.014.5113.7117.5113.9
season14.914.3112.3115.6
opponent14.614.8113.6111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA14.816.017.316.216.0
DAL14.012.313.416.514.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Jaime Jaquez Jr.51530.17-0.670.840.112-81017.314.62.6614.513.31.25
Thomas Bryant19200.02-0.520.540.05-1-5418.815.33.5014.113.90.15
Haywood Highsmith1718-0.01-0.490.480.11-4-2-216.116.00.0212.714.3-1.54
Nikola Jovic3534-0.05-0.450.40-0.050-6614.916.7-1.7913.814.1-0.29
Jimmy Butler7376-0.27-0.23-0.03-0.301-7816.115.80.2914.113.70.40
Terry Rozier8079-0.39-0.11-0.28-0.36-1-5415.618.3-2.6414.412.02.43
Bam Adebayo7677-0.520.02-0.54-0.37-5-1-415.318.8-3.5013.914.1-0.15
Caleb Martin6264-0.640.14-0.78-0.32-115-1617.014.22.7614.013.90.06
Duncan Robinson6264-0.820.32-1.14-0.50-115-1615.217.7-2.5413.315.3-2.05

Dallas Mavericks
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Maxi Kleber47450.93-0.431.370.4616-102612.915.0-2.1915.816.2-0.38
Dante Exum33330.89-0.391.290.4216-102614.613.70.9017.315.41.89
Dereck Lively II42420.88-0.381.250.3817-112814.513.60.9617.914.53.38
Luka Doncic81800.63-0.130.770.3111-51613.615.8-2.2016.016.3-0.35
Tim Hardaway Jr.43430.280.220.070.087-1812.615.1-2.4716.016.1-0.12
Kyrie Irving76730.070.43-0.360.27-713-2014.113.50.6415.218.9-3.73
Derrick Jones Jr.2624-0.130.63-0.760.05-612-1814.613.70.8714.116.7-2.62
Josh Green3433-0.260.76-1.01-0.17-39-1215.113.41.6618.114.93.19
P.J. Washington6058-0.330.83-1.17-0.16-612-1813.914.1-0.2515.716.6-0.99
Daniel Gafford4344-0.470.97-1.44-0.03-1521-3614.913.21.7115.116.8-1.69


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.6,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.77,0.99,1
GameSimilarity Score
BOS 111, SEA 1180.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.45,0.57,0.61,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.78,0.84,0.83,193.3%
NOP 99, GSW 1080.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.33,0.47,0.78,0.85,1,191.7%
PHI 89, ORL 950.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.79,0.93,0.99,190.7%