NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	120		Excitement	7.9 [294]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +36.5%
Miami Heat	126		Comeback	4.3 [544]		LVP	Haywood Highsmith (MIA): -7.3%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Collins	0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.12	0.00	13	64%	0.22	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Lauri Markkanen	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18	0.11	0.11	0.03	15	60%	0.24	1	-0.06	12	92%	0.08
Omer Yurtseven	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keyonte George	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.08	-0.02	0.04	23	65%	0.22	5	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01
Collin Sexton	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.05	0.03	13	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Luka Samanic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Talen Horton-Tucker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brice Sensabaugh	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taylor Hendricks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.27	0.13	0.04	19	76%	0.40	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.14	0.16	0.02	15	68%	0.28	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.16	0.08	-0.00	9	82%	0.24	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	10	55%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	9	64%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	13	46%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.3	27.4	14.7	30.0	1.8	33.2	134.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.7%

MIA +2.9%

UTA -5.6%

MIA +33.5%

UTA -6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	14.3	14.5	120.0	128.6	113.9
season	14.7	14.9		113.7	112.3
opponent	14.8	13.9		111.0	119.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.4	14.1	15.6	14.1	14.8
MIA	14.0	15.3	13.7	14.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Talen Horton-Tucker	42	39	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.02	5	-11	16	15.2	14.5	0.70	14.4	14.2	0.27
Omer Yurtseven	31	30	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.17	10	-16	26	15.1	14.7	0.37	13.2	14.7	-1.55
Brice Sensabaugh	24	25	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-8	10	16.1	14.4	1.73	14.2	14.3	-0.05
Luka Samanic	11	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-2	-2	13.4	15.0	-1.63	18.0	13.9	4.15
Kris Dunn	21	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-7	8	14.0	15.0	-1.03	13.6	14.4	-0.85
Lauri Markkanen	85	84	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.32	6	-12	18	14.9	14.3	0.56	14.2	14.6	-0.43
Keyonte George	90	89	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.33	-8	2	-10	14.8	14.9	-0.10	14.4	12.6	1.89
John Collins	69	68	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.16	-16	10	-26	14.7	15.1	-0.37	14.7	13.2	1.55
Collin Sexton	66	66	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.36	-10	4	-14	14.4	15.6	-1.27	13.9	15.1	-1.21
Taylor Hendricks	61	59	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.22	-16	10	-26	14.9	14.6	0.28	14.1	14.6	-0.56

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	71	76	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.23	14	-8	22	14.6	13.3	1.30	14.4	16.0	-1.57
Bam Adebayo	73	71	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	4	-2	14.2	14.6	-0.49	14.8	14.9	-0.17
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	60	61	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	7	-8	14.5	13.9	0.66	14.0	16.1	-2.12
Terry Rozier	68	71	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	0	6	-6	14.3	14.2	0.11	13.7	17.6	-3.91
Caleb Martin	46	45	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.22	1	5	-4	14.9	13.7	1.12	16.0	13.8	2.24
Duncan Robinson	69	69	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	3	0	13.9	15.1	-1.18	16.0	12.3	3.70
Nikola Jovic	37	41	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	-1	8	13.9	14.5	-0.53	15.0	14.6	0.40
Orlando Robinson	25	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	2	2	14.6	14.2	0.49	14.9	14.8	0.17
Haywood Highsmith	41	37	0.08	0.41	-0.33	0.08	0	6	-6	13.4	14.9	-1.44	15.2	14.6	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.19,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.65,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.71,0.57,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.61,0.74,0.85,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 88, LAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.89,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.5%
WAS 106, NJN 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.69,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.53,0.76,0.89,0.95,0.92,1	92.4%
CLE 98, WAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.52,0.59,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.77,0.91,1	91.8%