NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	102		Excitement	7.6 [339]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +21.2%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	9.8 [76]		LVP	Justin Holiday (DEN): -18.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.07,0.04,0.19,0.21	0.06	0.20	0.04	26	52%	0.23	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Harrison Barnes	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.19	0.13	9	83%	0.22	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.09
Chris Duarte	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Huerter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	16	57%	0.14	5	-0.15	3	67%	0.01
Keon Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	8	33%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Malik Monk	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14	-0.14	-0.00	-0.01	11	25%	-0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.01	17	56%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	15	66%	0.20	4	-0.07	8	100%	0.08
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	4	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.06	0.01	17	39%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	13	46%	0.03	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Collin Gillespie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.01	-0.13	0.04	8	44%	-0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.0	27.1	15.3	25.9	1.7	37.3	131.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +37.1%

SAC +4.4%

SAC +16.9%

SAC +1.1%

DEN -9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	13.5	14.7	14.5	101.0	95.1	113.9
season	14.0	15.0		115.6	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.8		111.6	113.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.8	12.5	14.4	13.4	13.5
DEN	13.4	13.7	16.9	15.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	90	93	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.30	14	-10	24	13.1	16.2	-3.04	15.1	11.3	3.82
Domantas Sabonis	81	81	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.45	7	-3	10	13.3	14.0	-0.72	14.5	15.7	-1.25
Harrison Barnes	71	70	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.33	8	-4	12	13.2	14.1	-0.94	14.9	14.4	0.48
Malik Monk	62	65	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.46	1	3	-2	13.4	13.6	-0.27	14.3	15.5	-1.19
Keegan Murray	72	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.47	-4	8	-12	13.8	12.7	1.05	14.7	14.8	-0.02
Keon Ellis	7	6	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.09	5	-1	6	11.7	13.6	-1.89	17.3	14.6	2.75
Chris Duarte	14	17	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	3	-2	13.6	13.5	0.11	16.3	14.4	1.85
Kevin Huerter	55	54	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.14	3	1	2	13.3	13.7	-0.44	15.2	14.2	1.00
Alex Len	12	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	7	-10	13.2	13.5	-0.26	13.8	14.9	-1.03
Trey Lyles	25	26	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	9	-14	14.8	13.1	1.71	14.0	15.0	-0.95
Davion Mitchell	16	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.11	-7	11	-18	15.9	13.0	2.85	12.7	15.1	-2.36

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	18	19	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.01	2	-6	8	14.8	14.7	0.04	13.6	13.5	0.13
Christian Braun	52	50	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.07	3	-7	10	14.4	15.1	-0.73	13.3	13.6	-0.27
Peyton Watson	33	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	0	-4	15.2	14.5	0.68	13.1	13.6	-0.51
Collin Gillespie	42	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	4	-12	14.5	14.9	-0.42	12.6	14.0	-1.39
Reggie Jackson	59	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-7	10	15.0	14.4	0.55	14.2	12.4	1.79
Justin Holiday	75	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-5	6	14.7	14.9	-0.15	13.5	13.4	0.07
Aaron Gordon	72	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-5	6	14.5	15.4	-0.87	13.5	13.4	0.04
Nikola Jokic	85	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.39	-6	2	-8	14.7	14.8	-0.04	13.5	13.6	-0.13
Michael Porter Jr.	79	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.30	-12	8	-20	15.0	13.8	1.19	13.5	13.2	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.71,0.63,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.72,0.45,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 102, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.74,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.61,0.62,0.36,0.47,0.04,0	92.3%
CLE 105, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.53,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.31,0.15,0	92.2%
DEN 100, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.86,0.75,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.87,0.85,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.24,0.39,0.62,0.64,0.32,0.09,0	91.2%