NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	10.6 [59]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +35.2%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	11.1 [12]		LVP	Evan Fournier (DEN): -23.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.25,0.31	-0.14	0.45	-0.01	18	42%	0.47	6	-0.16	7	29%	-0.17
Jan Vesely	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Miller	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.06	-0.01	15	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0	0.10	-0.08	0.02	15	68%	0.07	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Randy Foye	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.1,0.05,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.04	0.01	23	42%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	14	27%	-0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24	-0.09	-0.16	-0.01	11	37%	-0.10	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.12,-0.01,-0.01,0.35	0.35	0.04	0.31	0.00	19	55%	0.40	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.09
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.01	7	64%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	67%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	43%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.06
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	4	50%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0,0,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	0.02	-0.24	0.00	19	52%	-0.03	2	-0.18	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.7	31.6	18.3	24.9	2.8	37.0	141.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.5%

GSW -20.8%

DEN +46.2%

GSW -3.3%

DEN +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.4	14.3	15.1	99.0	99.0	105.2
season	14.0	14.2		104.5	105.9
opponent	15.3	14.9		102.0	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.2	13.1	13.3	14.3	14.4
GSW	12.8	14.1	15.0	15.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	59	59	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.46	9	-8	17	13.3	16.0	-2.71	15.4	12.6	2.80
Timofey Mozgov	89	89	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.53	-2	3	-5	14.6	13.2	1.30	14.2	14.7	-0.53
Jan Vesely	26	26	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.11	12	-11	23	13.7	14.6	-0.90	16.7	13.4	3.34
Aaron Brooks	85	84	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.49	-5	6	-11	14.3	14.9	-0.57	14.0	15.8	-1.85
Darrell Arthur	43	40	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	-7	15	13.2	15.3	-2.11	15.7	13.3	2.36
Kenneth Faried	69	70	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.35	-3	4	-7	15.1	12.8	2.36	13.4	16.2	-2.82
Randy Foye	82	81	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	5	-9	14.7	13.3	1.40	14.0	15.6	-1.63
Quincy Miller	52	51	-0.29	0.80	-1.09	-0.00	-10	11	-21	15.5	13.2	2.24	12.8	15.8	-2.97

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Crawford	32	33	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.01	6	-7	13	15.9	13.5	2.42	12.5	15.3	-2.75
Steve Blake	33	33	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.04	2	-3	5	16.1	13.3	2.78	12.9	15.1	-2.25
Marreese Speights	32	33	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-2	3	15.8	13.5	2.24	13.2	15.0	-1.80
Jermaine O'Neal	44	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.19	2	-3	5	15.2	13.5	1.77	13.5	15.1	-1.62
Andrew Bogut	57	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.39	4	-5	9	13.7	15.0	-1.34	15.1	13.5	1.62
Draymond Green	52	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	3	-7	12.9	15.7	-2.83	15.1	13.6	1.50
Harrison Barnes	60	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	6	-13	15.5	12.4	3.10	13.6	15.6	-1.95
Klay Thompson	64	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.30	-6	5	-11	13.5	15.6	-2.07	15.1	13.1	2.03
Andre Iguodala	55	58	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.50	0	-1	1	13.1	15.7	-2.56	15.4	13.0	2.43
Stephen Curry	71	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.49	-3	2	-5	13.3	16.6	-3.23	15.1	12.6	2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.86,0.75,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.87,0.85,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.24,0.39,0.62,0.64,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 102, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.25,0.02,0	90.5%
IND 81, NOH 75	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.32,0.16,0	90.3%
DET 111, NYK 107	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.2,0.46,0.68,0.46,0.45,0.16,0	90.3%