NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	96		Excitement	4.2 [943]		MVP	Jose Alvarado (NOP): +7.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	87		Comeback	2.0 [1017]		LVP	Yuta Watanabe (MEM): -9.0%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Alvarado	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	62%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	9	77%	0.08	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Larry Nance Jr.	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	4	80%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Trey Murphy III	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	14	55%	0.10	6	-0.12	1	0%	-0.01
CJ McCollum	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	15	37%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	13	42%	0.02	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scotty Pippen Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Jemison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.01	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vince Williams Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	63%	0.06	4	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	19	51%	0.06	4	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
John Konchar	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Santi Aldama	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Stevens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Yuta Watanabe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	0.05	12	46%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	29.0	14.6	30.3	2.5	24.5	125.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +28.9%

NOP +3.2%

NOP +12.8%

NOP +2.5%

NOP +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	MEM	NBA	NOP	MEM	NBA
this game	14.6	15.4	14.5	100.0	90.6	113.9
season	14.4	14.8		114.8	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.7		113.2	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	15.1	12.0	13.9	18.0	14.6
MEM	14.9	15.7	16.1	14.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Nance Jr.	59	59	0.65	-0.15	0.79	-0.17	28	-19	47	14.7	14.6	0.07	15.6	15.1	0.51
Trey Murphy III	53	53	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	4	1	14.1	15.3	-1.12	14.7	16.2	-1.49
Brandon Ingram	72	71	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	4	1	15.2	13.0	2.24	15.5	14.9	0.66
Herbert Jones	69	69	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	2	5	14.8	14.1	0.73	15.4	15.3	0.04
Zion Williamson	67	68	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	1	7	14.4	15.1	-0.67	15.7	14.5	1.17
CJ McCollum	65	63	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	0	9	14.7	14.5	0.13	15.7	14.6	1.11
Jose Alvarado	32	33	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	9	-9	14.1	14.9	-0.77	14.6	15.7	-1.11
Naji Marshall	27	28	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.19	0	9	-9	14.1	14.8	-0.73	15.2	15.4	-0.16
Jonas Valanciunas	36	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.37	-17	26	-43	15.0	14.4	0.54	15.1	15.5	-0.41

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Jemison	34	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.34	12	-21	33	14.3	16.0	-1.70	15.4	14.2	1.20
Scotty Pippen Jr.	48	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	-3	-3	15.6	15.2	0.40	14.6	14.7	-0.13
John Konchar	33	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.13	-10	1	-11	15.5	15.3	0.28	13.4	15.3	-1.94
Santi Aldama	59	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	3	-15	15.8	14.6	1.25	14.4	15.1	-0.67
Luke Kennard	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-7	5	15.8	14.7	1.10	14.6	14.7	-0.07
Yuta Watanabe	50	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-8	7	15.5	15.2	0.32	15.1	14.1	0.99
Vince Williams Jr.	74	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-5	1	15.3	15.7	-0.47	14.9	13.9	0.95
Lamar Stevens	54	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-7	5	14.2	16.8	-2.61	14.9	14.3	0.65
Jaren Jackson Jr.	73	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.04	-20	11	-31	15.8	14.1	1.68	14.3	15.5	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.07,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, IND 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
GSW 120, BKN 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.15,0.14,0,0	94.5%
WAS 123, DEN 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%