NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	136		Excitement	7.4 [371]		MVP	Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL): +36.1%
Atlanta Hawks	126		Comeback	3.8 [166]		LVP	Dejounte Murray (ATL): -19.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ayo Dosunmu	0.36	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.20	0.13	-0.02	18	78%	0.38	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.07	0.02	17	64%	0.20	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	5	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.04	16	59%	0.11	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.01
Dalen Terry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	3	117%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	8	69%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	7	44%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Coby White	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.06	0.03	0.07	17	53%	0.06	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Julian Phillips	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.24	0.12	-0.00	16	87%	0.40	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.01	0.01	14	66%	0.19	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	8	61%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Jalen Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.03	9	59%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Bruno Fernando	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	40%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	14	47%	0.09	2	-0.06	12	92%	0.05
Garrison Mathews	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	11	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dejounte Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.08	0.03	17	47%	0.01	6	-0.20	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.7	28.3	14.7	31.2	2.5	30.2	134.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +49.5%

ATL -12.8%

ATL -13.0%

CHI +25.7%

CHI +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	14.4	13.2	14.5	129.5	121.2	113.9
season	14.5	14.2		113.4	115.7
opponent	14.3	15.0		118.0	115.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.1	13.0	14.5	15.8	14.4
ATL	14.2	15.8	12.2	10.9	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	82	83	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	-3	16	14.6	13.4	1.23	13.2	13.1	0.07
Ayo Dosunmu	85	83	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	-3	16	14.4	14.1	0.31	13.1	13.6	-0.46
Coby White	71	71	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	4	2	15.0	13.0	2.04	12.7	14.2	-1.48
Nikola Vucevic	75	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	7	-4	14.8	13.3	1.43	12.7	14.4	-1.68
Jevon Carter	56	55	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	1	8	13.6	15.3	-1.71	13.7	12.7	1.04
Torrey Craig	58	58	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	6	-2	15.2	13.3	1.99	13.3	13.1	0.17
Dalen Terry	47	46	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.19	-3	13	-16	13.9	14.7	-0.87	13.3	13.1	0.22
Andre Drummond	35	35	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	6	-2	12.9	15.1	-2.11	14.3	12.6	1.72
Julian Phillips	16	15	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	9	-8	11.9	14.8	-2.92	13.1	13.2	-0.08

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrison Mathews	7	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-8	6	21.7	12.6	9.13	17.5	14.2	3.34
Bruno Fernando	24	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-6	2	14.5	12.8	1.74	13.5	14.6	-1.10
De'Andre Hunter	65	66	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-12	14	11.9	15.4	-3.53	13.7	15.5	-1.85
Bogdan Bogdanovic	59	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-8	6	13.7	12.5	1.22	13.2	15.9	-2.72
Dejounte Murray	73	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-5	0	12.7	14.5	-1.83	14.8	13.3	1.43
Onyeka Okongwu	70	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-5	0	13.6	12.4	1.17	14.5	14.0	0.48
Saddiq Bey	70	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.24	-7	-3	-4	12.7	14.3	-1.67	14.8	13.4	1.48
Jalen Johnson	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	3	-16	13.4	12.8	0.57	14.6	13.8	0.82
Trae Young	77	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	4	-18	13.2	13.1	0.12	14.7	13.6	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.03,0.05,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 88, BOS 79	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.13,0.08,0.01,0,0,0	92.9%
WAS 105, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.77,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.13,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	91.9%
HOU 119, BKN 111	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.04,0.02,0,0	91.9%