NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	123		Excitement	8.0 [279]		MVP	Miles Bridges (CHA): +45.4%
Charlotte Hornets	117		Comeback	11.1 [253]		LVP	P.J. Washington (CHA): -17.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
RJ Barrett	0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.16	0.25	0.01	15	74%	0.42	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	0.00	13	60%	0.19	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	5	86%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Gradey Dick	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	2	150%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.01	7	75%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Scottie Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	14	53%	0.11	2	-0.11	6	83%	-0.01
Thaddeus Young	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	13	54%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.08	0.01	9	64%	0.05	2	-0.09	7	71%	-0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.59,0.49,0.48,0.45	0.45	0.34	0.13	0.02	27	74%	0.48	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.03
Bryce McGowens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	-0.00	7	71%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.01	0.00	4	112%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.02	17	59%	0.19	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Nick Richards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	2	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Cody Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.11	-0.09	0.00	13	66%	0.03	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Leaky Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nathan Mensah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	11	23%	-0.14	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	25.4	15.3	24.6	2.5	35.5	133.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +41.5%

TOR +12.1%

TOR +10.1%

CHA -11.6%

CHA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHA	NBA	TOR	CHA	NBA
this game	13.7	16.1	14.5	126.8	121.9	113.9
season	14.0	14.8		111.3	108.3
opponent	14.5	14.7		118.7	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.4	13.8	11.4	13.8	13.7
CHA	14.3	18.3	14.9	17.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	67	67	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	0	6	13.8	13.6	0.22	16.1	16.3	-0.25
RJ Barrett	68	65	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	6	-6	14.0	13.1	0.93	15.6	17.3	-1.71
Dennis Schroder	54	52	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	-3	12	13.5	14.0	-0.46	16.7	15.5	1.17
Immanuel Quickley	63	61	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.49	-4	10	-14	14.3	12.7	1.56	15.4	17.3	-1.90
Gradey Dick	30	31	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	-3	12	13.4	13.9	-0.51	17.0	15.7	1.23
Bruce Brown	44	44	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	-2	10	12.5	14.7	-2.15	17.0	15.4	1.60
Scottie Barnes	71	72	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	2	2	14.1	12.8	1.30	16.3	15.6	0.74
Thaddeus Young	30	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.04	0	6	-6	13.6	13.8	-0.22	16.3	16.1	0.25
Gary Trent Jr.	58	59	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.13	-2	8	-10	13.6	13.8	-0.21	15.7	16.9	-1.19

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leaky Black	49	47	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.04	9	-15	24	15.8	16.5	-0.78	14.3	13.1	1.20
Bryce McGowens	30	30	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.05	6	-12	18	16.6	15.9	0.68	13.5	13.8	-0.37
Nathan Mensah	10	11	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-10	14	16.9	16.0	0.85	14.6	13.6	1.03
Ish Smith	33	32	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.07	-1	-5	4	16.5	15.9	0.58	13.3	13.9	-0.56
Nick Richards	58	58	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-7	8	15.7	16.7	-1.00	14.4	12.7	1.64
Cody Martin	54	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-5	4	15.6	16.8	-1.11	14.2	13.0	1.17
Miles Bridges	76	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	0	-6	15.6	18.3	-2.80	13.5	14.4	-0.85
Nick Smith Jr.	25	26	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.30	-11	5	-16	17.6	15.6	1.98	13.9	13.7	0.22
Brandon Miller	83	85	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.31	-12	6	-18	16.3	15.1	1.22	13.5	15.5	-2.03
P.J. Washington	62	63	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.15	-19	13	-32	16.6	15.3	1.26	12.9	15.3	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.8,0.92,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.68,0.36,0.4,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 117, PHX 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.91,0.8,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.73,0.62,0.72,0.33,0.02,0	90.9%
CHI 95, MIL 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.43,0.09,0	90.9%
BOS 105, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.45,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.33,0.17,0	90.6%