NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	7.1 [405]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +41.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	87		Comeback	8.6 [268]		LVP	John Salmons (MIL): -15.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.39,0.41	0.15	0.27	0.01	17	65%	0.48	2	-0.07	12	100%	0.11
CJ Watson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.08	0.00	3	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	12	58%	0.13	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	6	75%	0.13	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Ronnie Brewer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	8	53%	0.05	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
Keith Bogans	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Omer Asik	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Kyle Korver	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	6	33%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.11	0.01	11	88%	0.34	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.07
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	10	41%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	38%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	10	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.03	-0.05	15	41%	0.00	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	0.03	-0.21	-0.02	21	50%	-0.02	1	-0.13	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	29.7	14.8	27.4	2.3	32.4	131.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +56.4%

CHI +1.6%

MIL -4.5%

CHI +2.3%

MIL -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	14.6	17.6	15.5	104.4	98.9	105.7
season	15.7	16.2		106.5	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.9		100.9	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.2	13.7	14.9	14.5	14.6
MIL	16.1	17.7	17.8	19.1	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	66	63	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-6	20	14.7	14.3	0.42	17.7	17.6	0.12
Luol Deng	77	75	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.28	12	-4	16	14.1	17.0	-2.86	17.0	21.6	-4.66
Joakim Noah	72	70	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	0	8	14.7	14.1	0.67	17.5	18.2	-0.72
Derrick Rose	77	75	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	1	6	14.5	15.3	-0.83	17.5	18.5	-1.05
Ronnie Brewer	44	41	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	-1	10	13.5	15.6	-2.18	18.2	17.1	1.07
Kyle Korver	27	26	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.26	3	5	-2	14.2	14.7	-0.51	19.2	17.0	2.25
CJ Watson	18	18	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	7	-6	15.9	14.3	1.63	19.8	17.1	2.75
Omer Asik	14	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	8	-8	15.4	14.4	1.00	18.2	17.5	0.67
Kurt Thomas	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	8	-8	10.2	14.8	-4.64	18.2	17.6	0.63
Taj Gibson	25	25	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.03	-6	14	-20	14.3	14.7	-0.42	17.6	17.7	-0.12
Keith Bogans	30	29	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.08	-8	16	-24	17.2	13.3	3.95	16.2	18.3	-2.10

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Sanders	30	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-8	8	17.1	17.9	-0.83	13.1	15.4	-2.30
Jon Brockman	15	16	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.04	-9	1	-10	18.7	17.4	1.31	12.1	15.1	-3.06
Keyon Dooling	29	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.12	-13	5	-18	18.4	17.3	1.09	12.1	15.8	-3.70
Luc Mbah a Moute	65	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-4	0	17.4	18.2	-0.77	15.2	13.0	2.24
Andrew Bogut	66	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-5	2	17.8	17.0	0.80	15.3	12.5	2.81
John Salmons	75	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-6	4	17.5	18.8	-1.32	15.1	12.2	2.91
Brandon Jennings	83	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-4	0	17.7	17.4	0.26	14.7	11.5	3.22
Carlos Delfino	77	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-3	-2	17.5	18.4	-0.82	14.9	12.2	2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.43,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 101, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.28,0	91.9%
NJN 99, MIL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.32,0.15,0	91.5%
BOS 105, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.45,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.33,0.17,0	91.4%