NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	124		Excitement	6.5 [511]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +21.3%
Boston Celtics	129		Comeback	1.2 [993]		LVP	Kristaps Porzingis (BOS): -15.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Nesmith	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.16	0.20	-0.03	0.02	17	76%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	16	64%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Andrew Nembhard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	13	54%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	6	47%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Buddy Hield	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	11	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	16	38%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ben Sheppard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	18	42%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.19	0.02	-0.01	19	73%	0.26	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.17	0.05	0.01	15	66%	0.21	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Derrick White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	16	67%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.05	0.01	8	94%	0.22	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Neemias Queta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.06	-0.02	3	57%	0.08	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	90%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oshae Brissett	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	17	45%	-0.01	4	-0.14	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	32.5	16.3	29.5	2.7	36.0	144.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +61.8%

BOS +7.0%

IND -11.9%

IND -9.8%

BOS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	BOS	NBA	IND	BOS	NBA
this game	13.7	14.6	14.5	121.6	127.7	113.9
season	13.7	14.8		119.9	121.4
opponent	14.7	14.7		109.6	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.8	14.7	12.8	13.7	13.7
BOS	12.9	13.6	15.5	16.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Myles Turner	56	55	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.18	7	-12	19	13.2	14.3	-1.08	15.2	14.0	1.26
Pascal Siakam	67	67	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.34	9	-14	23	13.2	14.8	-1.62	15.1	13.7	1.46
Tyrese Haliburton	50	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-1	-3	13.5	14.0	-0.50	13.5	15.7	-2.20
Buddy Hield	76	77	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.31	7	-12	19	13.6	14.2	-0.61	14.8	14.1	0.73
Aaron Nesmith	88	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-2	-1	13.8	13.6	0.19	14.7	14.2	0.47
Ben Sheppard	27	27	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	6	-17	13.7	13.7	-0.04	13.3	15.1	-1.89
Andrew Nembhard	58	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-2	-1	13.8	13.7	0.13	15.3	13.8	1.49
Obi Toppin	47	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	5	-15	14.5	13.1	1.48	14.0	15.1	-1.12
Jalen Smith	41	42	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.07	-17	12	-29	14.9	13.0	1.91	14.6	14.6	-0.00

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Neemias Queta	30	28	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-10	25	14.5	14.7	-0.25	15.2	13.2	2.04
Sam Hauser	51	52	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.13	14	-9	23	13.4	15.9	-2.57	13.6	13.9	-0.28
Payton Pritchard	35	35	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-7	19	13.6	15.2	-1.55	14.5	13.3	1.23
Jrue Holiday	82	82	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	3	-1	15.0	13.2	1.83	13.8	13.4	0.42
Jaylen Brown	74	74	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.37	-6	11	-17	15.5	12.2	3.36	13.7	13.9	-0.27
Jayson Tatum	79	81	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.31	-4	9	-13	15.2	12.5	2.74	14.0	12.9	1.05
Derrick White	76	78	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.25	-4	9	-13	14.2	15.9	-1.70	13.0	16.2	-3.18
Oshae Brissett	14	14	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	2	1	12.0	15.1	-3.07	12.4	14.0	-1.60
Kristaps Porzingis	64	66	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.16	-7	12	-19	15.2	13.8	1.40	13.7	13.8	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.96,1,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 104, HOU 117	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.87,0.91,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.67,0.69,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	94.8%
IND 126, CHA 133	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.93,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%
IND 126, BKN 134	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.74,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	92.8%