NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	5.4 [715]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +25.7%
New York Knicks	125		Comeback	2.1 [735]		LVP	Terry Rozier (MIA): -10.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.16	0.09	-0.01	20	61%	0.26	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	4	60%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	14	63%	0.12	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	60%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	60%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.01	18	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	12	38%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.20	0.03	0.02	22	65%	0.21	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.02	6	60%	0.12	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.00
Miles McBride	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.00	4	90%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.04	0.03	14	61%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	10	55%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	-0.01	0.05	7	87%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.01	14	59%	0.17	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	7	29%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malachi Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jericho Sims	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.6	27.7	23.2	29.4	3.4	29.7	141.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +36.6%

MIA -2.0%

NYK +10.7%

NYK +2.2%

NYK +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	14.7	15.8	14.5	116.0	131.6	113.9
season	14.9	15.6		112.3	116.8
opponent	14.4	14.8		113.0	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	15.7	13.8	14.3	14.7
NYK	18.4	15.0	15.6	14.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-20	24	12.0	14.8	-2.79	11.7	15.9	-4.24
Orlando Robinson	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-20	24	12.0	14.8	-2.79	11.7	15.9	-4.24
Jimmy Butler	68	70	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.14	-7	-9	2	14.9	14.3	0.60	16.3	14.4	1.86
Kevin Love	27	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-13	10	14.4	14.8	-0.36	15.5	15.9	-0.38
Haywood Highsmith	38	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.25	4	-20	24	15.8	13.9	1.87	16.6	15.1	1.48
Caleb Martin	34	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-14	12	13.4	15.4	-1.98	14.7	16.4	-1.65
Terry Rozier	60	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	-2	-12	15.4	13.4	1.98	16.4	14.7	1.65
Duncan Robinson	54	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-5	-6	14.0	15.6	-1.56	15.1	16.7	-1.65
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	49	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.16	-18	2	-20	14.4	15.0	-0.61	14.8	16.7	-1.89
Tyler Herro	69	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	1	-18	15.0	13.9	1.07	16.2	14.6	1.59
Bam Adebayo	65	65	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.05	-20	4	-24	14.7	14.7	0.02	16.0	15.2	0.78

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Brunson	72	74	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.02	24	-8	32	16.2	14.5	1.70	15.2	12.7	2.54
Josh Hart	65	65	0.67	-0.17	0.85	-0.21	30	-14	44	14.9	17.7	-2.82	14.3	15.6	-1.33
Precious Achiuwa	64	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.13	19	-3	22	15.2	17.0	-1.88	13.9	16.3	-2.44
OG Anunoby	63	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	3	10	16.4	14.5	1.96	15.5	13.0	2.49
Quentin Grimes	51	51	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	6	4	15.4	16.2	-0.90	13.5	16.2	-2.69
Donte DiVincenzo	37	36	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	16	-16	16.9	15.0	1.93	16.0	13.9	2.10
Isaiah Hartenstein	28	29	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	15	-14	17.6	15.0	2.61	16.8	13.8	2.97
Julius Randle	63	61	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	13	-10	16.1	15.2	0.88	14.7	14.7	0.05
Jericho Sims	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	20	-24	11.7	15.9	-4.24	13.0	14.8	-1.78
Ryan Arcidiacono	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	20	-24	11.7	15.9	-4.24	12.0	14.8	-2.79
Malachi Flynn	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	20	-24	11.7	15.9	-4.24	13.0	14.7	-1.74
Miles McBride	23	20	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.05	-8	24	-32	14.5	16.2	-1.70	12.7	15.2	-2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.51,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.73,0.62,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 97, ATL 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
NOH 87, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.79,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.82,0.88,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%
SAC 100, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	93.2%