NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	9.1 [137]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +32.9%
Boston Celtics	100		Comeback	3.7 [132]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -27.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.33	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.33	0.25	0.09	0.01	21	78%	0.36	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	9	62%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Justin Holiday	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.25,0.18,-0.01,-0.01	0.15	-0.14	0.02	22	71%	0.10	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	11	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	6	13%	-0.13	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.11	0.11	0.14	-0.03	0.00	18	65%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.14	-0.05	0.06	11	70%	0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.02
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	19	32%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.11
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,-0.27	-0.27	0.00	-0.28	-0.00	24	43%	-0.27	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	28.4	16.4	24.6	2.7	32.2	133.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.9%

DEN +16.7%

DEN +40.6%

BOS -31.4%

BOS -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	17.1	16.2	14.5	117.2	116.3	113.9
season	14.9	14.7		116.6	121.6
opponent	14.7	14.6		109.4	111.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	19.1	14.7	16.7	18.1	17.1
BOS	13.0	17.3	16.8	17.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	76	73	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.49	1	1	0	16.9	18.8	-1.94	16.7	13.2	3.54
Michael Porter Jr.	70	68	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.28	6	-4	10	16.3	20.6	-4.30	16.4	15.4	0.98
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	68	67	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.41	0	2	-2	16.5	19.3	-2.73	16.2	16.2	0.01
Reggie Jackson	36	35	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-8	18	18.4	16.2	2.25	16.4	16.0	0.40
Nikola Jokic	69	69	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.30	1	1	0	17.2	16.9	0.23	15.8	17.8	-2.00
Peyton Watson	36	37	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	-5	12	17.8	16.6	1.21	16.3	16.1	0.24
Jamal Murray	68	67	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.45	-7	9	-16	16.6	18.9	-2.33	16.6	14.5	2.10
Justin Holiday	4	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	3	-4	22.5	16.9	5.63	10.6	16.5	-5.91
Christian Braun	8	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	9	-16	24.0	16.4	7.57	11.4	16.7	-5.27

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	48	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.18	4	-6	10	15.8	16.7	-0.89	16.6	17.8	-1.17
Luke Kornet	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-1	0	18.9	15.6	3.22	18.6	16.8	1.72
Payton Pritchard	22	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-2	2	16.1	16.2	-0.04	18.0	16.8	1.11
Sam Hauser	28	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	3	-8	14.9	16.8	-1.88	18.6	16.4	2.19
Jayson Tatum	70	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.45	6	-8	14	16.4	15.0	1.43	17.0	17.8	-0.87
Derrick White	64	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	0	-2	16.2	16.1	0.04	16.8	18.0	-1.11
Kristaps Porzingis	66	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.42	2	-4	6	16.3	15.5	0.80	16.6	18.9	-2.28
Jaylen Brown	65	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.32	-2	0	-2	16.0	16.7	-0.73	16.6	18.8	-2.16
Jrue Holiday	53	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.33	-12	10	-22	16.1	16.2	-0.13	17.9	15.7	2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.57,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.4,0.61,0.62,0.36,0.16,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 89, CLE 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.31,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.28,0.13,0.42,0	91.5%
SAC 95, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.51,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.32,0.42,0	90.5%
NYK 107, LAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.37,0.17,0.42,0	90.2%