NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	120		Excitement	8.6 [199]		MVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL): +45.4%
Dallas Mavericks	125		Comeback	7.2 [127]		LVP	Brandon Ingram (NOP): -18.2%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.22	0.13	0.08	-0.01	17	67%	0.30	3	-0.08	11	55%	-0.15
Herbert Jones	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.01	5	91%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jordan Hawkins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.01	4	90%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.01	0.03	17	64%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Larry Nance Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	11	56%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Trey Murphy III	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.01	5	64%	0.02	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.04
Dyson Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Naji Marshall	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Ingram	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.18	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	14	33%	-0.14	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45	0.45	0.25	0.20	-0.01	23	73%	0.55	4	-0.10	10	100%	0.05
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.32	0.32	0.14	0.18	-0.00	28	59%	0.39	3	-0.07	15	87%	0.04
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	7	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	8	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.09
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dereck Lively II	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.2	2.3	31.6	15.3	30.6	2.7	35.2	148.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +36.5%

DAL +10.0%

DAL +12.7%

NOP -9.3%

DAL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DAL	NBA	NOP	DAL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.2	14.5	120.0	126.3	113.9
season	14.4	14.2		114.8	116.2
opponent	14.5	14.7		114.0	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	16.3	11.2	13.5	14.7	13.8
DAL	14.4	16.1	14.2	16.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Naji Marshall	21	21	0.38	-0.88	1.25	-0.06	15	-20	35	11.8	14.3	-2.52	14.3	15.4	-1.04
Larry Nance Jr.	57	56	0.35	-0.85	1.20	-0.12	16	-21	37	13.1	14.8	-1.70	14.4	16.1	-1.66
Jordan Hawkins	45	45	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.02	8	-13	21	13.4	14.1	-0.69	13.6	16.4	-2.80
CJ McCollum	62	59	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.29	15	-20	35	13.3	14.7	-1.38	15.4	14.7	0.67
Zion Williamson	70	70	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.21	6	-11	17	13.2	15.2	-2.00	14.5	16.7	-2.18
Trey Murphy III	47	46	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.17	-10	5	-15	13.9	13.7	0.14	15.2	15.1	0.12
Dyson Daniels	38	40	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.07	-20	15	-35	14.7	13.3	1.38	14.7	15.4	-0.67
Herbert Jones	60	58	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.38	-14	9	-23	14.1	13.3	0.79	16.3	13.6	2.67
Jonas Valanciunas	36	38	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.16	-22	17	-39	16.2	12.4	3.78	16.4	14.3	2.10
Brandon Ingram	64	62	-0.90	0.40	-1.30	-0.34	-19	14	-33	14.3	12.9	1.42	16.0	13.7	2.36

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Green	59	62	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.32	14	-9	23	15.3	14.9	0.38	14.8	12.2	2.61
Grant Williams	63	64	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.11	16	-11	27	14.9	15.6	-0.72	14.2	13.1	1.12
Kyrie Irving	84	84	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-2	9	15.3	14.3	0.96	14.1	12.3	1.77
Dereck Lively II	52	51	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.45	-2	7	-9	16.3	13.9	2.35	15.3	12.3	2.97
Tim Hardaway Jr.	86	87	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.40	-1	6	-7	15.0	16.4	-1.42	13.2	17.6	-4.39
Dwight Powell	34	35	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	-1	7	14.3	15.6	-1.26	12.1	14.7	-2.55
Jaden Hardy	32	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	5	-5	15.1	15.2	-0.13	13.2	14.1	-0.81
A.J. Lawson	29	27	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	6	-7	15.5	15.0	0.52	13.0	14.1	-1.15
Seth Curry	15	16	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	7	-9	14.3	15.3	-0.96	12.3	14.1	-1.77
Maxi Kleber	41	42	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.26	-12	17	-29	14.8	15.4	-0.59	13.5	14.0	-0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.52,0.48,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.53,0.72,0.77,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 85, SAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.4,0.55,0.72,0.91,0.99,1	90.5%
DEN 106, LAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.54,0.78,0.92,1	90.5%
NOH 96, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.34,0.61,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	90.4%