NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	125		Excitement	9.2 [133]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +100.4%
San Antonio Spurs	121		Comeback	4.6 [491]		LVP	Brook Lopez (MIL): -18.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	1.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.56,0.75,0.75,1	0.33	0.68	0.01	28	71%	1.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.26	0.12	0.15	0.01	19	60%	0.26	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Khris Middleton	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	3	45%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Malik Beasley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
MarJon Beauchamp	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	36%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Connaughton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	-0.00	4	70%	0.02	3	-0.14	2	50%	0.00
Brook Lopez	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	10	45%	-0.06	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5	0.50	0.29	0.22	0.01	21	81%	0.50	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,-0.03,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.12	-0.04	18	64%	0.40	5	-0.18	6	83%	-0.02
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	7	76%	0.17	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
Dominick Barlow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	17	39%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Tre Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	13	60%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	0.01	11	37%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.4	23.7	16.3	29.5	2.8	34.1	136.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +58.1%

MIL +8.7%

SAS -8.4%

SAS -7.7%

SAS -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	13.5	13.9	14.5	119.0	115.2	113.9
season	14.3	13.9		117.0	108.6
opponent	14.3	14.3		115.2	114.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.2	12.9	14.0	13.9	13.5
SAS	12.5	14.2	13.1	16.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	85	83	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-7	18	13.4	14.0	-0.66	14.1	13.4	0.70
Giannis Antetokounmpo	88	87	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-7	18	13.2	14.9	-1.63	14.3	12.3	1.98
Brook Lopez	74	73	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.38	8	-4	12	13.2	14.2	-1.01	13.8	14.2	-0.48
Malik Beasley	62	62	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.47	4	0	4	12.6	14.8	-2.24	13.0	15.2	-2.11
Pat Connaughton	62	63	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.41	3	1	2	13.7	13.3	0.40	14.0	13.9	0.10
Khris Middleton	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.05	7	-3	10	12.7	13.9	-1.20	13.3	14.2	-0.99
Andre Jackson Jr.	9	8	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	9	-14	17.0	13.2	3.81	15.6	13.8	1.85
Bobby Portis	43	44	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	12	-20	14.6	12.8	1.81	13.5	14.2	-0.79
MarJon Beauchamp	36	38	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.03	-7	11	-18	14.1	13.2	0.91	14.2	13.7	0.51
Cameron Payne	31	32	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.13	-4	8	-12	14.5	13.1	1.47	15.1	13.4	1.70

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedi Osman	58	58	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.09	10	-14	24	14.8	12.8	2.00	14.1	12.8	1.24
Blake Wesley	31	30	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.06	6	-10	16	15.3	13.4	1.91	14.3	13.2	1.15
Dominick Barlow	30	30	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.05	5	-9	14	13.7	14.0	-0.35	14.6	13.1	1.47
Julian Champagnie	49	48	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-1	-2	13.2	14.6	-1.37	12.9	14.0	-1.10
Sandro Mamukelashvili	4	5	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-3	2	16.7	13.8	2.95	16.0	13.4	2.61
Keldon Johnson	62	63	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.49	7	-11	18	14.2	13.5	0.76	14.4	12.1	2.29
Tre Jones	78	78	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.37	-9	5	-14	13.7	14.4	-0.66	13.1	14.8	-1.75
Jeremy Sochan	75	74	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.27	-14	10	-24	13.6	14.8	-1.24	12.9	14.9	-2.02
Devin Vassell	75	77	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.45	-10	6	-16	14.0	13.7	0.35	13.6	13.3	0.26
Victor Wembanyama	63	62	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.46	-11	7	-18	13.1	15.1	-1.93	12.6	14.8	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.64,0.47,0.53,0.68,0.55,0.15,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 99, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.58,0.74,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.22,0.71,0	91.6%
MIA 102, BKN 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.42,0	91.3%
MIL 90, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.28,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.22,0.28,0	91.0%