NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	6.0 [601]		MVP	Anthony Davis (LAL): +11.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	96		Comeback	1.1 [431]		LVP	Taurean Prince (LAL): -15.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jovic	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	11	68%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.05	-0.03	14	46%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	14	57%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.06	-0.01	14	44%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	19	51%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Jamal Cain	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Swider	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
R.J. Hampton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.00	17	66%	0.22	5	-0.10	10	90%	0.04
Christian Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.03	10	57%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Austin Reaves	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.12	-0.04	0.07	12	73%	0.09	3	-0.08	9	89%	0.01
Max Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	12	54%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.03	-0.04	18	33%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Hood-Schifino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cam Reddish	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	6	0%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.5	29.2	14.8	25.2	3.3	29.7	134.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.4%

LAL -12.3%

LAL -10.5%

MIA +28.1%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	13.6	14.5	14.5	108.9	92.3	113.9
season	14.9	14.1		112.3	114.4
opponent	14.3	14.8		114.3	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.0	13.6	13.4	15.5	13.6
LAL	12.8	15.8	15.4	14.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	84	87	0.65	-0.15	0.80	-0.06	24	-10	34	13.1	15.8	-2.73	14.4	15.1	-0.63
Bam Adebayo	81	83	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	2	10	13.5	13.6	-0.12	14.4	15.1	-0.71
Kevin Love	59	59	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	3	8	13.7	13.3	0.46	14.3	14.9	-0.60
Josh Richardson	43	42	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	5	4	13.5	13.6	-0.07	14.9	14.3	0.59
Duncan Robinson	62	61	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.23	0	14	-14	14.5	12.0	2.53	14.0	15.2	-1.20
Nikola Jovic	59	62	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	11	-8	13.5	13.6	-0.15	14.7	14.3	0.45
Kyle Lowry	55	59	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	8	-2	12.9	14.3	-1.34	14.7	14.2	0.50
Tyler Herro	58	63	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	9	-4	13.4	13.8	-0.41	14.6	14.5	0.07
Jamal Cain	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	18.0	13.5	4.49	21.0	14.5	6.53
Cole Swider	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	18.0	13.5	4.49	21.0	14.5	6.53
Orlando Robinson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	18.0	13.5	4.49	21.0	14.5	6.53
R.J. Hampton	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	18.0	13.5	4.49	21.0	14.5	6.53

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaxson Hayes	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	21.0	14.5	6.53	18.0	13.5	4.49
Jalen Hood-Schifino	12	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-13	12	17.9	14.1	3.83	12.9	13.6	-0.72
Austin Reaves	78	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.05	-2	-12	10	14.7	14.0	0.71	13.8	12.9	0.86
Jarred Vanderbilt	32	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-8	2	12.8	15.3	-2.52	13.9	13.4	0.45
Christian Wood	51	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-15	16	14.0	15.0	-0.96	14.4	12.8	1.58
Cam Reddish	44	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	-7	0	15.6	13.8	1.80	12.0	14.5	-2.49
Max Christie	61	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	-6	-2	13.8	15.6	-1.75	13.6	13.4	0.23
Anthony Davis	93	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	-1	-12	14.2	17.6	-3.48	13.6	12.9	0.72
Taurean Prince	65	62	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	0	-14	14.5	14.5	-0.02	13.4	13.7	-0.31
LeBron James	83	81	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.04	-20	6	-26	15.2	12.0	3.17	13.4	14.0	-0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.1,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 93, MEM 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.27,0.17,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.15,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.02,0	95.1%
MIN 108, WAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0	94.8%
IND 79, HOU 71	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%