NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	117		Excitement	6.5 [515]		MVP	Myles Turner (IND): +29.7%
Indiana Pacers	110		Comeback	1.4 [534]		LVP	Aaron Nesmith (IND): -16.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.14	0.09	0.00	14	67%	0.27	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.04
Paolo Banchero	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.04	0.01	20	61%	0.25	3	-0.08	16	75%	-0.01
Moritz Wagner	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	3	90%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Cole Anthony	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	11	46%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Caleb Houstan	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	80%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Jonathan Isaac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0	50%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.03	0.02	9	71%	0.11	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Wendell Carter Jr.	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.21	0.10	0.01	11	92%	0.32	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	15	65%	0.16	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.02	0.04	10	85%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	-0.01	0.01	22	62%	0.19	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.05	0.02	5	100%	0.10	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	5	30%	-0.04	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.3	1.7	33.0	14.6	26.6	1.8	30.3	140.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -7.1%

ORL +29.9%

ORL +17.0%

ORL +6.8%

ORL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	16.7	13.6	14.5	124.5	114.6	113.9
season	15.1	13.8		111.8	120.0
opponent	14.7	14.4		117.4	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.3	16.0	16.9	19.1	16.7
IND	11.4	14.6	15.1	13.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Houstan	39	38	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.09	17	-10	27	17.0	16.5	0.45	15.3	12.5	2.82
Goga Bitadze	23	23	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.19	11	-4	15	17.0	16.7	0.29	12.5	14.0	-1.49
Moritz Wagner	36	38	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-5	17	17.5	16.3	1.20	15.1	12.7	2.42
Jonathan Isaac	23	23	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-2	11	17.3	16.6	0.70	15.1	13.1	1.99
Franz Wagner	70	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	7	-7	17.4	14.7	2.72	13.5	13.8	-0.28
Cole Anthony	48	49	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	0	7	16.1	17.4	-1.33	13.4	13.8	-0.42
Gary Harris	68	70	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	0	7	-7	16.3	17.8	-1.54	13.2	14.7	-1.53
Paolo Banchero	71	73	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.26	-2	9	-11	16.6	17.3	-0.70	13.1	15.1	-1.99
Anthony Black	57	58	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.16	-3	10	-13	16.8	16.7	0.05	13.3	14.2	-0.90
Wendell Carter Jr.	35	35	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.05	-16	23	-39	15.8	17.3	-1.44	12.8	14.1	-1.33

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Myles Turner	57	57	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.37	18	-25	43	13.5	13.8	-0.30	17.8	15.2	2.59
Andrew Nembhard	70	69	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.42	14	-21	35	13.7	13.5	0.21	17.6	14.5	3.07
Buddy Hield	75	75	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-18	29	13.4	14.3	-0.92	17.3	14.3	3.03
Obi Toppin	51	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-9	11	13.2	14.1	-0.85	16.1	17.4	-1.36
Tyrese Haliburton	79	78	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.36	8	-15	23	13.5	14.1	-0.54	16.9	15.7	1.26
Isaiah Jackson	13	12	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	1	-9	13.5	13.6	-0.09	15.0	17.0	-1.99
T.J. McConnell	15	14	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.07	-17	10	-27	14.7	13.4	1.25	14.9	17.0	-2.12
Jalen Smith	29	29	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.06	-19	12	-31	14.0	13.5	0.50	15.6	17.3	-1.71
Bennedict Mathurin	36	33	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.15	-24	17	-41	13.4	13.7	-0.36	15.3	17.5	-2.25
Aaron Nesmith	55	54	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.12	-20	13	-33	14.1	12.9	1.24	16.4	17.1	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.51,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 114, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.04,0.02,0.01,0	92.5%
DET 95, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.04,0	92.5%
SEA 103, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	92.4%