NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	5.8 [625]		MVP	Nick Smith Jr. (CHA): +16.0%
Charlotte Hornets	95		Comeback	2.3 [922]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DEN): -13.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.01	-0.00	14	73%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Christian Braun	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	65%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	14	60%	0.15	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	19	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Julian Strawther	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	11	52%	0.05	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	9	11%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.06	0.03	12	73%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.04	23	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Nathan Mensah	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	20	41%	-0.01	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.02
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bryce McGowens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Richards	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	8	55%	0.01	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	7	57%	-0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.3	26.9	14.6	23.6	2.3	34.6	128.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +32.8%

CHA -2.7%

DEN +19.6%

DEN +1.7%

CHA -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	14.7	14.5	14.5	104.1	96.0	113.9
season	15.0	14.8		116.2	108.3
opponent	14.5	14.6		118.7	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	14.5	13.5	16.0	14.7
CHA	15.0	13.8	14.7	14.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	62	62	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-8	23	14.1	15.7	-1.59	15.4	13.0	2.44
Nikola Jokic	72	74	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-5	17	14.5	15.3	-0.81	14.8	13.8	1.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	64	64	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	-4	15	14.3	15.4	-1.11	15.1	13.5	1.52
Aaron Gordon	64	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-5	17	14.7	14.8	-0.12	15.1	13.5	1.56
Jamal Murray	67	66	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	0	7	15.0	14.1	0.90	14.8	13.9	0.92
Peyton Watson	36	35	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.15	-3	10	-13	14.8	14.7	0.14	13.5	15.1	-1.56
Reggie Jackson	31	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	7	-7	14.1	15.0	-0.90	13.9	14.8	-0.92
Julian Strawther	33	34	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	11	-15	15.8	14.2	1.66	13.5	15.0	-1.52
Zeke Nnaji	24	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.14	-7	14	-21	15.3	14.5	0.82	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Christian Braun	37	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.15	-8	15	-23	15.4	14.3	1.07	13.0	15.5	-2.43

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cody Martin	35	34	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-12	17	12.7	15.5	-2.80	15.8	14.2	1.61
Nathan Mensah	15	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-3	-1	11.9	15.0	-3.13	14.4	14.8	-0.37
Brandon Miller	23	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-3	-1	14.7	14.5	0.28	14.5	14.8	-0.33
Nick Smith Jr.	52	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.27	6	-13	19	14.0	15.1	-1.03	15.6	13.8	1.84
Bryce McGowens	37	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-3	-1	15.1	14.2	0.97	14.2	15.0	-0.80
Gordon Hayward	63	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.29	-3	-4	1	14.9	13.9	0.96	14.7	14.7	0.07
Ish Smith	56	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	5	-17	15.2	13.6	1.59	13.9	15.8	-1.87
Miles Bridges	76	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	14.5	14.6	-0.11	14.6	15.2	-0.61
Nick Richards	79	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-3	-1	15.0	12.5	2.48	14.8	14.4	0.45
P.J. Washington	59	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	3	-13	14.6	14.4	0.13	14.6	14.9	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.39,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 109, MEM 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0	92.2%
ORL 108, NJN 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.39,0.3,0.23,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	91.6%
PHX 102, MIL 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.69,0.6,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	91.5%