NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	124		Excitement	5.9 [617]		MVP	Ayo Dosunmu (CHI): +25.8%
Miami Heat	116		Comeback	1.0 [562]		LVP	Orlando Robinson (MIA): -4.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ayo Dosunmu	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.21	0.09	0.04	12	86%	0.26	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Nikola Vucevic	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.05	-0.03	21	55%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Coby White	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.09	0.06	0.05	20	54%	0.10	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.04
DeMar DeRozan	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	59%	0.16	3	-0.08	11	91%	0.04
Alex Caruso	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Patrick Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dalen Terry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	7	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.03	12	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	12	57%	0.12	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	14	58%	0.10	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.05
R.J. Hampton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	75%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.00	0.07	13	65%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.02	15	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.01
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.6	31.4	15.3	28.6	2.4	31.2	138.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +18.3%

MIA -1.4%

CHI +15.0%

CHI +12.6%

CHI +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	14.6	14.5	125.3	116.0	113.9
season	14.5	14.9		113.4	112.3
opponent	14.8	15.0		111.0	115.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.0	16.5	12.9	15.6	14.4
MIA	14.1	14.2	14.3	15.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Coby White	79	81	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.02	20	-12	32	14.1	15.7	-1.64	15.3	11.2	4.12
Nikola Vucevic	73	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-4	16	14.7	13.6	1.11	14.7	14.1	0.55
DeMar DeRozan	82	84	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-6	20	14.5	13.7	0.83	15.0	12.2	2.74
Patrick Williams	65	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	0	8	14.3	14.6	-0.30	14.9	13.9	1.03
Ayo Dosunmu	71	72	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.38	-1	9	-10	14.7	13.7	1.00	14.5	14.6	-0.13
Alex Caruso	11	10	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.14	11	-3	14	12.5	14.6	-2.18	16.1	14.4	1.72
Torrey Craig	50	52	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.23	-6	14	-20	14.7	14.0	0.70	13.4	15.8	-2.35
Jevon Carter	32	32	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	13	-18	14.0	14.6	-0.54	12.7	15.4	-2.65
Andre Drummond	26	27	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	12	-16	13.6	14.7	-1.11	14.1	14.7	-0.55
Dalen Terry	6	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.16	-9	17	-26	17.2	14.2	2.95	10.4	14.8	-4.37

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	46	45	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-13	18	13.8	15.1	-1.30	14.8	14.0	0.79
R.J. Hampton	22	21	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.15	6	-14	20	11.7	15.3	-3.62	13.9	14.5	-0.68
Jamal Cain	21	19	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.14	5	-13	18	11.6	15.3	-3.77	12.1	14.9	-2.90
Thomas Bryant	26	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.22	0	-8	8	12.8	15.2	-2.35	15.0	14.2	0.76
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	73	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-11	14	13.8	16.7	-2.95	14.2	14.8	-0.52
Orlando Robinson	28	29	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	5	-18	17.3	13.5	3.85	13.2	14.9	-1.63
Caleb Martin	77	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.13	-8	0	-8	15.4	11.9	3.48	14.9	12.5	2.37
Duncan Robinson	55	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	5	-18	15.5	13.4	2.01	15.0	13.7	1.29
Jimmy Butler	74	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	3	-14	14.7	14.2	0.48	14.2	15.0	-0.80
Kyle Lowry	78	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	6	-20	15.3	11.7	3.62	14.5	13.9	0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.26,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.15,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 104, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.04,0,0,0	93.1%
IND 100, HOU 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	92.6%
NYK 96, CHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.26,0.16,0.25,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,0,0	92.0%