NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	117		Excitement	6.5 [521]		MVP	Malik Monk (SAC): +27.6%
Sacramento Kings	123		Comeback	2.1 [669]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DEN): -22.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.23	0.09	0.04	23	62%	0.27	0	0.00	12	75%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	13	65%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	18	56%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.04	0.04	12	54%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.08	0.02	12	35%	-0.09	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.16	0.12	-0.00	14	81%	0.35	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	22	54%	0.12	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	10	80%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	61%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	8	41%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Keon Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vezenkov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	10	40%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	18	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	1.0	26.1	14.5	26.7	1.8	32.3	132.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +36.1%

DEN -3.9%

SAC +11.9%

SAC +5.1%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	13.9	12.7	14.5	108.3	113.9	113.9
season	15.0	14.0		116.2	115.6
opponent	14.8	14.6		113.6	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	15.6	14.4	12.2	13.9
SAC	11.1	12.6	13.9	13.5	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	30	32	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.17	8	-14	22	11.5	14.9	-3.36	13.5	12.4	1.12
Christian Braun	38	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-6	6	14.4	13.7	0.68	11.8	13.2	-1.39
Nikola Jokic	84	86	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.45	11	-17	28	13.7	14.7	-1.06	12.9	12.1	0.76
Justin Holiday	27	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.05	-3	-3	0	13.1	14.2	-1.04	12.7	12.8	-0.08
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	83	82	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.41	9	-15	24	14.2	13.1	1.10	13.4	10.6	2.85
Julian Strawther	30	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	1	-8	13.3	14.2	-0.82	10.7	13.6	-2.87
DeAndre Jordan	24	22	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	11	-28	14.7	13.7	1.06	12.1	12.9	-0.76
Michael Porter Jr.	73	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	0	-6	14.4	12.9	1.50	13.0	12.2	0.82
Aaron Gordon	75	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	5	-16	14.1	13.5	0.55	12.6	13.0	-0.34
Reggie Jackson	76	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.19	-14	8	-22	14.3	13.1	1.14	12.8	12.5	0.32

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	88	88	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.08	22	-16	38	12.3	14.8	-2.59	13.7	14.9	-1.20
Malik Monk	64	62	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-6	18	13.1	12.2	0.90	13.5	14.5	-0.96
Harrison Barnes	74	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-5	16	12.8	12.6	0.22	14.1	13.5	0.56
Sasha Vezenkov	36	33	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.06	14	-8	22	11.4	13.4	-1.94	13.6	14.1	-0.50
JaVale McGee	30	28	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.09	14	-8	22	11.3	13.3	-1.95	13.8	14.0	-0.14
Domantas Sabonis	78	80	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.41	-8	14	-22	13.3	11.3	1.95	14.0	13.8	0.14
Kevin Huerter	64	67	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.29	-4	10	-14	12.9	12.6	0.29	14.1	13.6	0.55
Trey Lyles	42	40	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	7	-8	12.2	13.1	-0.90	12.6	14.7	-2.07
Keon Ellis	15	15	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.17	-14	20	-34	15.4	12.3	3.09	15.5	13.7	1.87
Keegan Murray	49	51	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.17	-16	22	-38	13.5	12.1	1.33	15.1	12.9	2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.86,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.8,0.68,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.75,0.72,0.85,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 115, ATL 122	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.75,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.83,0.78,0.88,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.83,0.9,0.74,0.77,0.92,1	92.3%
BKN 118, TOR 119	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.79,0.91,0.85,1	92.3%
BOS 111, LAC 114	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.89,0.98,0.99,0.92,1	92.3%