NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	121		Excitement	8.2 [254]		MVP	Cameron Payne (MIL): +33.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	132		Comeback	2.2 [715]		LVP	Brook Lopez (MIL): -6.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Saddiq Bey	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.17	0.09	0.05	7	94%	0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0.20	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.19	-0.00	-0.01	19	75%	0.28	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Trae Young	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.06	-0.01	28	55%	0.11	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
De'Andre Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.01	10	46%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	18	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.06
Garrison Mathews	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	13	36%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.12	0.22	-0.00	11	75%	0.36	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.05	0.00	20	71%	0.32	5	-0.13	5	80%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.10	0.06	16	74%	0.26	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.07	0.03	11	73%	0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.01	13	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
MarJon Beauchamp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.05	0.03	9	67%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	7	55%	0.00	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	26.6	14.3	26.9	1.8	28.2	123.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +72.1%

ATL -6.2%

ATL -2.1%

ATL -13.0%

ATL -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	13.9	13.6	14.5	115.2	126.9	113.9
season	14.2	14.3		115.7	117.0
opponent	14.3	14.3		114.8	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.1	14.7	12.8	14.3	13.9
MIL	13.6	13.5	13.0	14.5	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Andre Hunter	68	67	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.09	6	-17	23	13.5	14.7	-1.17	13.8	13.2	0.62
Garrison Mathews	16	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-5	-1	14.1	13.9	0.21	12.7	13.8	-1.02
Saddiq Bey	79	79	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-9	7	13.7	14.8	-1.15	13.7	13.4	0.28
Bogdan Bogdanovic	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	-4	-3	14.4	13.5	0.92	13.8	13.4	0.36
Clint Capela	67	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.22	1	-12	13	13.7	14.3	-0.63	13.4	14.0	-0.56
Dejounte Murray	74	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	-3	-5	14.0	13.7	0.29	13.9	13.0	0.86
Wesley Matthews	25	25	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	2	-15	15.1	13.6	1.54	13.3	13.7	-0.39
Trae Young	82	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.32	-7	-4	-3	13.6	15.3	-1.69	13.3	15.0	-1.78
Onyeka Okongwu	60	58	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.06	-19	8	-27	14.5	13.2	1.30	13.9	13.3	0.56

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	83	85	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.12	14	-3	17	13.5	14.2	-0.78	13.7	14.9	-1.18
Giannis Antetokounmpo	81	82	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	3	5	13.6	13.6	0.06	13.6	15.0	-1.35
MarJon Beauchamp	33	35	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.10	14	-3	17	13.7	13.6	0.08	14.3	13.7	0.60
Brook Lopez	73	73	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.25	2	9	-7	13.5	14.0	-0.50	13.6	14.7	-1.16
Cameron Payne	42	43	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	6	-1	13.7	13.6	0.09	14.9	13.3	1.55
Malik Beasley	86	86	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.19	2	9	-7	13.8	12.5	1.35	13.8	14.4	-0.52
AJ Green	18	19	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.02	9	2	7	12.5	13.8	-1.35	14.4	13.8	0.52
Bobby Portis	48	49	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.05	9	2	7	13.6	13.6	0.02	14.3	13.7	0.60
Khris Middleton	56	53	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.18	-8	19	-27	13.9	13.2	0.72	13.9	13.9	0.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.31,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.66,0.6,0.85,0.79,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 77, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.4%
CHI 95, OKC 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.98,1,1	92.4%
CLE 98, BKN 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.89,1,1,1	92.4%