NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	8.1 [256]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (DEN): +40.5%
LA Clippers	104		Comeback	8.9 [41]		LVP	Paul George (LAC): -15.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.41	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.41	0.26	0.18	0.03	19	83%	0.45	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
DeAndre Jordan	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.10	-0.00	11	64%	0.21	2	-0.04	11	45%	-0.09
Justin Holiday	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	8	75%	0.12	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.06	0.02	7	50%	0.09	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04
Zeke Nnaji	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	38%	-0.03	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Christian Braun	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	13	31%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.07	0.03	14	35%	-0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.00	15	61%	0.17	1	-0.04	8	62%	-0.05
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	8	48%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	9	58%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.06
P.J. Tucker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terance Mann	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	3	62%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Daniel Theis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.08	0.01	7	69%	0.10	3	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0,-0.05,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.10	0.01	26	51%	-0.04	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.08
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.18	-0.01	-0.03	13	21%	-0.06	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.0	26.9	15.3	30.6	2.5	42.4	145.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.7%

LAC -33.3%

DEN +10.8%

DEN +13.7%

LAC -5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	15.2	14.0	14.5	116.5	103.0	113.9
season	15.0	14.9		116.4	116.6
opponent	14.4	14.6		114.2	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	16.7	15.6	15.2	15.2
LAC	16.3	12.8	12.7	14.1	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	79	82	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.18	25	-16	41	15.7	12.9	2.78	14.1	13.3	0.79
DeAndre Jordan	65	70	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.19	17	-8	25	16.1	13.2	2.98	14.1	13.6	0.50
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	76	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-6	21	15.6	13.5	2.08	14.1	13.6	0.51
Justin Holiday	65	71	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.25	5	4	1	15.4	14.6	0.79	14.0	13.8	0.18
Julian Strawther	39	40	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	0	9	14.5	15.6	-1.12	14.6	13.5	1.14
Peyton Watson	50	48	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.16	2	7	-5	14.1	16.3	-2.26	14.4	13.5	0.87
Michael Porter Jr.	61	65	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	6	-3	15.4	14.7	0.78	12.8	16.0	-3.17
Zeke Nnaji	25	25	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.03	-13	22	-35	12.6	16.0	-3.39	14.1	13.9	0.16
Christian Braun	25	26	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	0.02	-18	27	-45	14.0	15.6	-1.61	13.4	14.2	-0.78

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Tucker	14	13	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-12	15	13.4	14.1	-0.70	13.1	15.5	-2.40
Daniel Theis	27	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-9	9	13.9	14.0	-0.05	14.4	15.4	-1.05
James Harden	76	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-14	19	14.2	13.3	0.90	14.9	15.8	-0.92
Norman Powell	46	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	0	-9	13.6	14.2	-0.61	14.2	16.1	-1.87
Ivica Zubac	66	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-3	-3	14.1	13.7	0.33	15.9	13.9	2.03
Kawhi Leonard	81	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-4	-1	13.9	14.1	-0.24	15.4	14.1	1.33
Terance Mann	61	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	2	-13	14.5	13.2	1.30	16.1	13.9	2.13
Paul George	76	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	2	-13	14.3	13.0	1.28	15.4	14.5	0.89
Russell Westbrook	58	58	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	2	-13	13.1	15.2	-2.09	14.8	15.7	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.73,0.65,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.73,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.86,0.71,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 97, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.81,0.94,0.92,0.82,0.8,0.63,0.47,0.24,0.09,0.11,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	92.6%
BOS 102, TOR 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.26,0	91.7%
CLE 86, CHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.29,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.08,0	91.5%