NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	8.1 [255]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +24.4%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	9.7 [129]		LVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): -18.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.24	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0,0.1,0.2,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.05	0.18	-0.02	13	70%	0.38	5	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.21	0.16	0.08	0.02	17	71%	0.34	4	-0.13	14	100%	0.10
Kemba Walker	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.18	-0.05	0.22	-0.01	18	41%	0.24	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	5	92%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Daniel Theis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.06	5	30%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Wanamaker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	13	55%	0.07	4	-0.15	3	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.01	-0.00	12	74%	0.21	1	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	12	71%	0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.07	-0.01	16	40%	0.10	2	-0.09	8	75%	0.05
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.00	5	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.06	0.02	16	47%	0.01	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	4	60%	0.03	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.10	0.02	22	43%	-0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.7	28.7	14.0	35.5	3.0	38.2	144.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +73.2%

BOS +2.5%

TOR -7.0%

TOR -10.7%

TOR -8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.8	14.4	14.2	104.1	100.0	109.6
season	14.5	14.0		112.0	109.9
opponent	14.5	14.4		104.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	13.4	14.8	16.0	14.8
TOR	15.3	13.8	14.5	14.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	86	88	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.44	5	-2	7	14.9	14.1	0.84	14.3	15.1	-0.75
Marcus Smart	77	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.51	1	2	-1	15.2	13.3	1.89	15.0	12.5	2.42
Daniel Theis	60	61	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.51	1	2	-1	15.1	14.3	0.77	14.8	13.8	1.03
Kemba Walker	77	76	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	6	-9	15.3	13.1	2.13	14.6	13.7	0.89
Grant Williams	37	38	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	-1	5	14.6	14.9	-0.27	15.1	14.0	1.06
Jaylen Brown	71	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	2	-1	14.4	15.8	-1.38	15.0	12.8	2.19
Semi Ojeleye	24	23	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	-4	11	12.8	15.5	-2.68	12.3	15.1	-2.82
Robert Williams III	38	38	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.09	2	1	1	14.3	15.1	-0.77	13.8	14.8	-1.03
Brad Wanamaker	20	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	6	-9	15.1	14.7	0.42	11.2	15.3	-4.04

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	38	41	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.06	7	-10	17	15.5	13.8	1.70	16.2	13.8	2.33
Terence Davis	13	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-2	1	10.5	15.0	-4.47	14.5	14.9	-0.41
Kyle Lowry	81	81	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.41	9	-12	21	13.7	17.5	-3.76	15.8	10.4	5.40
OG Anunoby	76	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.39	6	-9	15	14.6	13.7	0.89	15.3	13.1	2.13
Chris Boucher	21	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	6	-15	14.5	14.4	0.07	12.8	15.3	-2.47
Pascal Siakam	88	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	14.8	11.4	3.44	14.9	14.1	0.84
Fred VanVleet	88	87	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.8	11.1	3.75	14.7	15.4	-0.62
Serge Ibaka	61	57	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.35	-10	7	-17	13.8	15.5	-1.70	13.8	16.2	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 85, CHA 80	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.04,0	92.2%
CLE 86, CHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.29,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.08,0	91.6%
CHI 88, SEA 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.09,0	91.2%