NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	119		Excitement	9.3 [128]		MVP	Franz Wagner (ORL): +44.6%
Orlando Magic	124		Comeback	6.1 [159]		LVP	Anthony Black (ORL): -11.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.43	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.43	0.20	0.24	0.01	18	73%	0.48	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.19	0.12	0.01	16	74%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.06	0.02	7	76%	0.18	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	8	56%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Julian Strawther	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	16	44%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Peyton Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Reggie Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.00	-0.07	0.02	15	45%	-0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.49,0.46,0.45	0.45	0.17	0.30	0.02	18	67%	0.48	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.10	0.22	0.02	14	70%	0.40	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.02
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.08	0.00	11	67%	0.20	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.06	0.00	4	120%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	7	67%	0.14	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	69%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	0.01	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Jalen Suggs	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Black	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	29.3	14.4	29.3	1.8	40.2	141.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +14.4%

ORL +37.8%

DEN -7.8%

ORL +6.4%

DEN -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.8	14.5	124.0	130.5	113.9
season	15.0	15.1		116.2	111.8
opponent	14.4	14.6		109.4	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	16.2	16.0	14.5	15.4
ORL	17.1	16.5	12.3	13.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Strawther	35	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.16	-5	0	-5	13.5	16.5	-2.92	14.5	14.9	-0.48
Jalen Pickett	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-6	7	15.3	15.4	-0.10	17.5	14.3	3.22
Peyton Watson	24	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.12	-9	4	-13	14.4	15.7	-1.31	14.0	15.0	-1.06
Zeke Nnaji	25	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	4	-13	14.4	15.7	-1.29	14.5	14.8	-0.30
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	67	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.41	5	-10	15	16.6	12.7	3.88	15.1	14.0	1.17
Aaron Gordon	71	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.43	4	-9	13	15.7	14.4	1.29	15.0	14.1	0.92
Nikola Jokic	71	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.43	4	-9	13	15.7	14.4	1.29	14.8	14.5	0.30
Christian Braun	44	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	8	-21	13.8	16.7	-2.87	13.7	15.7	-2.07
Michael Porter Jr.	60	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.53	5	-10	15	16.6	13.4	3.12	14.6	14.9	-0.29
Reggie Jackson	70	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	3	-11	15.2	16.0	-0.78	14.9	14.5	0.38

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goga Bitadze	59	61	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.59	2	3	-1	15.2	14.0	1.22	15.9	14.5	1.43
Jalen Suggs	56	56	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.49	3	2	1	14.9	14.5	0.42	15.8	14.9	0.89
Franz Wagner	59	59	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.51	-4	9	-13	15.2	14.0	1.27	16.5	13.6	2.97
Cole Anthony	57	58	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	3	-1	15.3	13.9	1.44	14.6	16.6	-1.96
Paolo Banchero	66	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.37	-4	9	-13	15.2	13.8	1.39	15.5	15.2	0.21
Anthony Black	31	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	1	3	13.7	15.2	-1.51	17.6	14.3	3.32
Joe Ingles	36	37	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.16	9	-4	13	14.0	15.2	-1.27	13.6	16.5	-2.97
Moritz Wagner	32	32	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.10	6	-1	7	14.4	15.0	-0.58	15.4	15.4	0.06
Jonathan Isaac	33	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.15	6	-1	7	13.5	15.5	-2.00	14.2	16.0	-1.78
Gary Harris	46	47	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	4	-3	14.5	15.0	-0.46	14.4	16.3	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 94, LAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.27,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.83,1	91.7%
ORL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.45,0.53,0.36,0.85,0.91,1	91.0%
POR 117, LAC 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.69,0.92,1	90.8%