NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	7.6 [344]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (CHI): +43.2%
Chicago Bulls	102		Comeback	14.8 [85]		LVP	Haywood Highsmith (MIA): -15.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.28	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.28	0.10	0.17	-0.02	16	64%	0.30	2	-0.01	7	100%	0.07
Duncan Robinson	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.05	-0.02	9	77%	0.25	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.01	12	75%	0.18	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.04
Josh Richardson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	6	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	7	31%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Caleb Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	9	28%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	4	60%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.10	-0.04	10	40%	-0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.26,0.43	0.43	0.06	0.35	-0.02	12	62%	0.47	3	-0.04	13	69%	-0.04
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.29	0.29	0.04	0.24	-0.02	8	61%	0.32	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.11	-0.01	10	65%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	14	54%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Coby White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.12	-0.02	13	54%	0.04	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	35.6	15.4	24.4	2.5	31.6	137.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +60.2%

MIA -19.5%

CHI +6.0%

CHI +6.7%

MIA -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	14.5	104.3	106.2	113.9
season	14.9	14.5		112.3	113.4
opponent	15.0	14.8		115.1	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	16.6	15.1	16.0	15.7
CHI	14.8	14.8	14.9	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	47	47	0.48	-0.98	1.45	-0.11	20	-25	45	15.0	16.5	-1.50	16.2	13.4	2.74
Kevin Love	24	24	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.18	-4	-1	-3	14.9	16.0	-1.08	15.0	14.7	0.36
Kyle Lowry	63	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.62	14	-19	33	14.6	18.1	-3.56	15.0	14.2	0.76
Caleb Martin	28	28	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.16	-14	9	-23	17.5	14.9	2.60	14.5	14.9	-0.43
Duncan Robinson	66	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.39	4	-9	13	16.2	14.6	1.59	14.9	14.5	0.35
Jimmy Butler	66	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.50	7	-12	19	15.0	17.5	-2.48	14.9	14.5	0.32
Bam Adebayo	69	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.54	-1	-4	3	16.0	14.9	1.08	14.7	15.0	-0.36
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	53	55	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	0.04	-25	20	-45	16.2	15.1	1.09	13.5	16.5	-2.95
Josh Richardson	49	48	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	0.00	-26	21	-47	16.7	14.6	2.10	14.4	15.1	-0.67

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach LaVine	72	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.48	-2	7	-9	15.0	14.0	0.97	15.0	17.9	-2.86
Nikola Vucevic	67	65	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.55	-5	10	-15	15.0	14.2	0.76	14.8	18.0	-3.21
Jevon Carter	27	23	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.17	17	-12	29	14.0	15.1	-1.07	19.3	14.6	4.70
Coby White	57	57	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.65	-11	16	-27	16.5	12.2	4.32	14.5	17.7	-3.18
Patrick Williams	30	30	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.16	15	-10	25	13.3	15.4	-2.09	17.3	15.0	2.33
DeMar DeRozan	79	76	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.51	-11	16	-27	15.3	12.4	2.87	15.3	17.4	-2.07
Ayo Dosunmu	25	26	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.29	16	-11	27	12.1	15.7	-3.64	18.3	14.7	3.59
Torrey Craig	34	33	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.20	12	-7	19	13.1	15.7	-2.56	16.3	15.4	0.95
Alex Caruso	60	57	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.60	-16	21	-37	15.3	13.9	1.32	14.5	17.6	-3.08
Andre Drummond	29	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.19	10	-5	15	14.2	15.0	-0.76	18.0	14.8	3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.23,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.31,0.46,0.33,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 99, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.28,0.32,0.58,1	90.9%
LAL 105, HOU 107	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.72,1	90.8%
MIL 114, MIA 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.25,0.37,0.23,0.74,1	90.6%