NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	107		Excitement	5.1 [767]		MVP	Chris Boucher (TOR): +19.1%
Toronto Raptors	111		Comeback	101.0 [33]		LVP	Jordan Poole (WAS): -22.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gafford	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	7	87%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Corey Kispert	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.03	7	62%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bilal Coulibaly	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.03	7	59%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Tyus Jones	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01	0.08	-0.09	-0.02	25	64%	0.17	6	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00
Landry Shamet	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Deni Avdija	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08	-0.03	-0.08	-0.03	7	64%	0.05	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Poole	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22	-0.08	-0.15	-0.01	16	44%	-0.14	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.19	0.19	0.03	0.15	-0.01	6	58%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.15	0.13	23	65%	0.32	6	-0.17	14	64%	-0.02
Gradey Dick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	100%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	17	50%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	8	68%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	38%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Malachi Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	5	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	8	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16	-0.16	-0.20	-0.03	-0.07	12	15%	-0.12	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	27.0	14.8	31.4	1.8	31.2	134.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +22.7%

TOR +3.0%

TOR +14.3%

TOR +13.0%

WAS -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	TOR	NBA	WAS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.5	13.8	14.5	105.9	107.8	113.9
season	13.7	14.0		109.8	111.3
opponent	14.7	14.1		117.6	118.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.8	14.2	15.4	15.4	14.5
TOR	17.2	15.1	10.9	12.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gafford	57	58	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.06	7	-11	18	14.5	14.4	0.09	12.7	15.1	-2.36
Landry Shamet	31	32	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-7	10	13.7	14.8	-1.07	16.3	12.6	3.66
Corey Kispert	51	52	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.34	-7	3	-10	13.9	15.0	-1.10	14.9	12.6	2.24
Mike Muscala	12	12	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.04	-1	-3	2	14.8	14.4	0.40	20.5	12.9	7.63
Tyus Jones	67	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.66	9	-13	22	14.6	14.3	0.24	12.7	15.7	-2.96
Kyle Kuzma	83	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.51	1	-5	6	14.4	14.8	-0.42	13.1	16.8	-3.78
Deni Avdija	61	63	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.59	-2	-2	0	14.1	15.1	-1.02	14.6	12.4	2.22
Bilal Coulibaly	69	71	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.23	-18	14	-32	15.0	13.3	1.67	13.4	14.5	-1.12
Jordan Poole	74	75	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.42	-12	8	-20	14.9	13.3	1.67	12.9	16.0	-3.03

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Boucher	43	41	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.41	14	-10	24	14.8	13.0	1.81	14.8	14.3	0.54
Pascal Siakam	82	81	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.26	18	-14	32	12.9	17.1	-4.25	14.7	13.5	1.23
Malachi Flynn	48	46	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.43	12	-8	20	14.0	13.5	0.45	15.2	13.9	1.34
Dennis Schroder	76	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.51	2	2	0	13.0	16.0	-2.99	14.4	14.8	-0.42
Scottie Barnes	82	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.55	-3	7	-10	13.5	14.9	-1.44	14.5	14.3	0.23
Precious Achiuwa	40	39	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.30	8	-4	12	15.2	12.8	2.36	14.1	14.8	-0.71
Jalen McDaniels	9	8	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	10	-16	19.6	13.2	6.35	13.7	14.5	-0.80
Gradey Dick	52	50	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.20	2	2	0	13.3	14.2	-0.83	14.3	14.7	-0.37
Otto Porter Jr.	30	31	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.10	-13	17	-30	15.0	13.2	1.75	13.6	14.9	-1.21
Jakob Poeltl	53	52	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.08	-14	18	-32	13.2	14.3	-1.09	14.4	14.6	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.09,0.27,1	94.2%
ATL 93, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.16,1	94.1%
SAC 117, PHX 119	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,1	93.8%