NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	8.1 [266]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +34.0%
San Antonio Spurs	113		Comeback	14.2 [121]		LVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): -19.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.34	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.31,0.34	0.09	0.25	0.00	7	75%	0.34	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.17	0.17	0.00	16	68%	0.34	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Kevin Love	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0.04,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.06	0.11	-0.01	8	60%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.08	0.01	14	51%	0.13	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	20	53%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Dru Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Thomas Bryant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.14	0.00	9	80%	0.31	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.04
Malaki Branham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.07	0.00	7	87%	0.19	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Devin Vassell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.01	12	58%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Bassey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Zach Collins	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	14	53%	0.15	3	-0.20	6	83%	0.02
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	0.06	-0.14	0.01	18	54%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.07	-0.05	22	41%	0.06	7	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.7	27.4	14.6	28.2	2.3	28.7	127.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -6.6%

MIA +17.4%

SAS -10.0%

MIA +49.9%

SAS -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	14.0	14.5	118.0	114.1	113.9
season	14.9	13.9		112.3	108.6
opponent	14.3	14.8		115.2	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	15.4	14.3	14.5	14.9
SAS	12.6	14.6	14.0	14.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	81	80	0.99	-0.49	1.49	0.35	22	-17	39	14.5	16.9	-2.43	14.5	12.1	2.42
Jimmy Butler	75	76	0.98	-0.48	1.47	0.57	14	-9	23	14.7	15.5	-0.79	14.4	12.6	1.83
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	67	66	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.42	10	-5	15	14.4	16.0	-1.64	14.1	13.8	0.38
Josh Richardson	55	54	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.48	1	4	-3	14.3	15.7	-1.42	13.9	14.2	-0.35
Thomas Bryant	10	10	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	-4	13	14.7	15.0	-0.26	16.8	13.7	3.10
Bam Adebayo	71	70	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.33	-10	15	-25	15.5	13.6	1.84	13.3	15.6	-2.28
Dru Smith	54	55	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.18	5	0	5	15.4	14.4	1.00	14.2	13.8	0.43
Kevin Love	31	30	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.00	-6	11	-17	14.1	15.3	-1.16	13.5	14.2	-0.73
Haywood Highsmith	56	54	-0.73	1.23	-1.96	-0.14	-20	25	-45	16.5	12.9	3.57	13.2	15.0	-1.86

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malaki Branham	42	42	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.21	0	-5	5	13.9	14.1	-0.27	14.6	15.2	-0.62
Doug McDermott	43	45	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-2	-1	14.8	13.4	1.46	14.7	15.1	-0.36
Charles Bassey	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-1	-3	14.3	14.0	0.32	13.0	15.2	-2.24
Zach Collins	69	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.33	5	-10	15	13.4	15.4	-1.99	15.7	13.0	2.71
Keldon Johnson	79	80	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.41	7	-12	19	13.6	15.7	-2.18	14.6	16.3	-1.77
Victor Wembanyama	72	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-10	15	13.8	14.6	-0.75	14.8	15.1	-0.30
Cedi Osman	40	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.06	-15	10	-25	14.9	13.4	1.54	14.8	15.0	-0.18
Jeremy Sochan	68	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.49	-5	0	-5	13.9	14.4	-0.50	15.3	14.1	1.28
Devin Vassell	68	69	-0.99	0.49	-1.48	-0.55	-15	10	-25	14.5	13.0	1.52	15.0	14.8	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.7,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.74,0.82,0.93,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.72,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.67,0.55,0.36,0.25,0.09,0	89.9%
ATL 112, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.86,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.26,0	89.7%
CHI 102, DET 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.63,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.71,0.53,0.46,0.34,0.04,0	89.4%