NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	7.0 [432]		MVP	Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM): +20.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	102		Comeback	2.0 [583]		LVP	Marcus Smart (MEM): -24.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.01	5	85%	0.17	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	7	87%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.09	0.05	15	65%	0.23	4	-0.10	16	87%	0.04
Kyle Lowry	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	11	68%	0.20	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	13	52%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	55%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	7	56%	0.07	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Dru Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.19	-0.05	-0.02	9	11%	-0.13	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.09	0.02	18	61%	0.24	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.01
Jacob Gilyard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	4	90%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Santi Aldama	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	14	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.06
Kenneth Lofton Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.04	7	81%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	-0.00
David Roddy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	16	39%	-0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Ziaire Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.03	9	11%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.24,-0.27,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.10	0.02	14	34%	-0.16	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	0.3	32.0	15.3	29.5	2.4	39.2	148.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.1%

MIA +17.4%

MEM -0.8%

MEM -4.0%

MEM -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	14.0	14.7	14.5	105.9	103.0	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		112.3	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.8		113.2	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.6	13.2	16.0	13.1	14.0
MEM	14.1	15.0	13.4	16.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	75	72	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.28	20	-14	34	13.5	15.3	-1.87	14.7	14.9	-0.20
Bam Adebayo	79	76	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.35	15	-9	24	13.6	15.3	-1.79	14.9	13.9	1.03
Jimmy Butler	76	73	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-6	18	14.1	13.6	0.46	14.0	16.8	-2.80
Duncan Robinson	76	73	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	4	-2	13.3	15.9	-2.58	14.9	14.2	0.65
Haywood Highsmith	58	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-6	18	14.2	13.6	0.65	14.0	15.6	-1.59
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	44	43	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.36	-6	12	-18	13.6	14.2	-0.65	15.6	14.0	1.59
Tyler Herro	18	18	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.07	6	0	6	14.3	13.9	0.38	14.7	14.7	0.02
Dru Smith	27	27	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	9	-12	14.5	13.8	0.76	17.2	13.8	3.46
Thomas Bryant	23	23	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.03	-9	15	-24	15.3	13.6	1.79	13.9	14.9	-1.03
Josh Richardson	34	34	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	0.06	-19	25	-44	15.6	13.1	2.53	14.0	15.1	-1.03

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Roddy	25	26	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.08	10	-16	26	16.4	14.1	2.32	13.5	14.1	-0.62
Jacob Gilyard	29	28	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.12	10	-16	26	15.8	14.3	1.54	15.1	13.5	1.53
Kenneth Lofton Jr.	14	13	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-8	10	17.1	14.3	2.75	14.2	13.9	0.22
Luke Kennard	58	59	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.23	7	-13	20	14.1	15.6	-1.54	14.2	13.6	0.58
Santi Aldama	54	54	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.31	7	-13	20	13.6	16.1	-2.49	14.9	12.9	1.93
Ziaire Williams	41	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	4	-14	15.6	14.1	1.54	13.4	14.4	-0.93
Jaren Jackson Jr.	68	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	-1	-4	15.3	13.5	1.78	13.1	16.0	-2.84
Bismack Biyombo	62	65	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	10	-26	14.5	15.0	-0.42	14.1	13.7	0.36
Marcus Smart	68	71	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.24	-17	11	-28	14.2	15.9	-1.74	13.7	14.6	-0.89
Desmond Bane	76	78	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.26	-18	12	-30	14.2	16.3	-2.14	14.1	13.6	0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.47,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.46,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.2,0.07,0.08,0,0,0,0	93.3%
SAS 102, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.09,0.07,0.04,0,0,0	93.3%
DAL 115, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.19,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.2%