NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	117		Excitement	7.7 [324]		MVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): +58.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	118		Comeback	9.6 [231]		LVP	Joel Embiid (PHI): -24.9%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.23	0.14	0.04	11	104%	0.45	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.04
Tobias Harris	0.28	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28	0.16	0.13	0.01	9	100%	0.33	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tyrese Maxey	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.24	0.15	0.10	0.01	22	57%	0.24	0	0.00	10	80%	0.03
Patrick Beverley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Springer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
De'Anthony Melton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	0.04	10	45%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joel Embiid	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.21,-0.31,-0.31,-0.23,-0.25	-0.12	-0.11	0.02	21	48%	-0.04	7	-0.21	8	37%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.33,0.38,0.51,0.58	0.58	0.29	0.29	-0.00	20	68%	0.58	0	0.00	17	100%	0.12
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	4	90%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.01	7	93%	0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
MarJon Beauchamp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.08
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	62%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.08,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	0.00	-0.02	21	45%	0.06	7	-0.17	9	33%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.5	37.6	16.7	31.2	3.3	40.8	161.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +11.4%

MIL +9.4%

MIL +17.4%

MIL +8.4%

MIL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIL	NBA	PHI	MIL	NBA
this game	13.5	14.1	14.5	112.5	112.4	113.9
season	14.9	14.3		115.6	117.0
opponent	14.3	14.5		114.8	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	12.7	14.9	13.3	13.0	13.5
MIL	15.0	12.8	14.4	14.1	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Beverley	28	28	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.04	6	-7	13	14.3	13.2	1.10	15.4	13.6	1.80
Paul Reed	25	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-1	1	14.9	13.0	1.84	13.3	14.3	-0.99
P.J. Tucker	56	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.07	2	-3	5	12.5	14.6	-2.09	14.9	13.1	1.83
Kelly Oubre Jr.	72	72	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.54	14	-15	29	13.1	14.4	-1.34	14.1	14.0	0.07
Danny Green	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-3	5	13.9	13.3	0.58	14.7	13.8	0.87
De'Anthony Melton	57	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	3	-7	12.8	14.3	-1.49	13.1	15.3	-2.26
Jaden Springer	8	8	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	9	-19	18.7	13.0	5.71	13.2	14.1	-0.89
Tyrese Maxey	86	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-1	1	13.9	11.4	2.46	14.0	14.6	-0.68
Joel Embiid	79	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	0	-1	13.0	14.9	-1.84	14.3	13.3	0.99
Tobias Harris	80	82	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.40	-14	13	-27	13.6	13.1	0.46	13.7	15.3	-1.57

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	58	60	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.56	11	-10	21	13.5	14.8	-1.36	13.5	13.5	-0.03
Brook Lopez	65	64	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.40	11	-10	21	13.3	15.3	-1.98	13.2	13.9	-0.76
Damian Lillard	82	80	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-11	23	14.1	14.0	0.15	13.6	13.2	0.35
Malik Beasley	70	68	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.49	-5	6	-11	14.5	13.1	1.40	12.5	15.3	-2.83
Khris Middleton	34	35	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.19	14	-13	27	14.2	14.0	0.24	14.5	13.0	1.51
Pat Connaughton	47	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	6	-11	14.2	14.0	0.21	13.2	13.7	-0.48
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	75	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.45	-13	14	-27	14.5	13.0	1.55	13.4	13.8	-0.43
Cameron Payne	19	20	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.10	-7	8	-15	13.5	14.2	-0.67	13.8	13.4	0.40
MarJon Beauchamp	35	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.07	-3	4	-7	13.1	14.6	-1.44	14.7	12.9	1.78
Bobby Portis	40	40	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	11	-21	15.3	13.3	1.98	13.9	13.2	0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.83,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.32,0.18,0.19,0.33,0.39,0.93,0.96,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 99, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.34,0.55,0.71,0.94,0.96,1	89.7%
SAS 98, HOU 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.89,0.77,0.88,0.91,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.46,0.45,0.84,0.91,0.95,1	89.5%
NJN 91, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.52,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.3,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.85,0.76,0.99,1	89.5%