NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	6.9 [447]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (SAS): +13.6%
Houston Rockets	104		Comeback	3.1 [530]		LVP	Austin Daye (SAS): -13.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.09	0.01	13	57%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.11,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	11	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	6	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.03	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	10	52%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Damion James	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Austin Daye	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	3	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Jones	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.06	0.03	12	65%	0.16	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.02	11	77%	0.18	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	0.00	4	80%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	11	52%	0.07	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.02	17	51%	0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.01	16	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.06
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.7	26.4	16.3	25.3	1.8	27.2	124.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +6.2%

HOU +15.6%

HOU +26.1%

HOU +4.2%

SAS -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	15.1	15.1	105.4	110.6	105.2
season	15.0	14.3		109.8	109.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.7	14.2	15.2	16.7	15.7
HOU	12.6	16.4	15.5	16.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damion James	58	56	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.16	13	-19	32	15.9	15.4	0.45	14.0	16.7	-2.62
Boris Diaw	48	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.38	10	-16	26	15.3	16.2	-0.91	15.8	14.4	1.43
Aron Baynes	40	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-6	6	15.7	15.7	-0.06	15.9	14.5	1.39
Matt Bonner	14	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-2	-2	16.9	15.5	1.35	14.1	15.3	-1.12
Cory Joseph	43	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.32	6	-12	18	15.8	15.6	0.19	15.5	14.7	0.82
Austin Daye	9	10	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-1	-4	16.8	15.6	1.18	18.8	14.7	4.15
Jeff Ayres	40	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-2	-2	15.4	15.9	-0.54	14.1	15.8	-1.74
Tony Parker	50	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	6	-18	15.6	15.8	-0.19	14.7	15.5	-0.82
Manu Ginobili	43	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	6	-18	15.4	16.0	-0.54	14.9	15.3	-0.35
Tim Duncan	57	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	8	-22	15.6	15.9	-0.25	15.2	14.9	0.38
Marco Belinelli	63	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	2	-10	16.0	15.1	0.85	15.2	14.7	0.49

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	63	60	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.29	18	-12	30	15.4	14.5	0.86	15.4	16.2	-0.78
Terrence Jones	78	77	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.33	16	-10	26	14.9	15.9	-0.94	15.6	16.3	-0.73
Chandler Parsons	78	77	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.33	16	-10	26	14.9	15.9	-0.94	15.6	16.3	-0.73
James Harden	70	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	0	6	15.3	14.6	0.63	15.2	17.2	-2.04
Patrick Beverley	72	70	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	4	-2	15.6	13.5	2.08	15.4	16.6	-1.19
Jeremy Lin	37	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	7	-8	14.2	15.6	-1.41	16.5	15.1	1.38
Francisco Garcia	25	26	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	11	-16	15.0	15.1	-0.13	17.1	15.2	1.95
Donatas Motiejunas	16	16	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.00	-10	16	-26	15.9	14.9	0.94	16.3	15.6	0.73
Omer Asik	31	33	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.04	-12	18	-30	14.5	15.4	-0.86	16.2	15.4	0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.89,0.77,0.88,0.91,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.46,0.45,0.84,0.91,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 83, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.9,0.99,1	91.0%
UTA 87, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.34,0.62,0.78,0.77,0.91,1	90.8%
DAL 100, LAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.8,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.78,0.66,0.57,0.49,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.4,0.68,0.84,0.97,0.98,1	90.6%