NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	7.3 [390]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +14.5%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.5 [1079]		LVP	Cade Cunningham (DET): -22.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Sasser	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	4	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	11	68%	0.14	4	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Marvin Bagley III	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Stewart	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	11	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	12	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jaden Ivey	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	7	24%	-0.05	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Ausar Thompson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Alec Burks	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.01	8	39%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cade Cunningham	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.06,-0.22	0.06	-0.26	0.02	27	56%	-0.16	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.02	-0.00	10	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	13	61%	0.13	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	9	65%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	5	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	18	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	9	78%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	1	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	24	33%	-0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	30.9	14.6	27.4	1.8	32.0	132.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.2%

MIA +15.2%

DET -6.9%

MIA +19.3%

MIA +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	15.9	14.5	106.2	108.4	113.9
season	14.2	14.9		108.4	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		111.0	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.6	17.1	15.4	12.4	14.3
MIA	15.1	14.2	15.9	18.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Sasser	21	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-3	5	15.8	13.9	1.88	14.9	16.1	-1.16
Jaden Ivey	35	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	1	-3	14.7	14.0	0.71	14.8	16.5	-1.66
Marvin Bagley III	31	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-4	7	15.7	13.6	2.05	14.6	16.5	-1.98
Isaiah Stewart	68	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.39	7	-8	15	13.5	16.2	-2.66	16.7	13.6	3.11
Alec Burks	48	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.49	9	-10	19	14.9	13.7	1.17	16.4	15.4	1.05
Joe Harris	24	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	4	-9	15.5	13.9	1.56	14.2	16.4	-2.24
Ausar Thompson	55	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	13	-27	14.6	13.9	0.68	15.2	16.8	-1.69
Killian Hayes	62	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.46	1	-2	3	13.8	15.2	-1.46	16.2	15.2	0.97
Cade Cunningham	71	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	1	-3	13.8	15.6	-1.82	16.2	14.7	1.55
Jalen Duren	65	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	3	-7	13.6	15.7	-2.05	16.5	14.6	1.98

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	64	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-3	7	15.6	16.5	-0.86	13.8	15.2	-1.38
Tyler Herro	68	71	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	-5	11	15.6	16.5	-0.90	14.4	14.1	0.23
Jimmy Butler	68	70	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.43	-3	4	-7	16.2	15.0	1.27	13.6	16.0	-2.40
Kevin Love	56	57	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.17	5	-4	9	15.4	16.6	-1.21	14.1	14.5	-0.37
Bam Adebayo	63	64	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	5	-9	16.7	14.3	2.35	13.7	15.4	-1.72
Thomas Bryant	32	31	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	-4	9	14.3	16.7	-2.35	15.8	13.6	2.19
Caleb Martin	39	37	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.29	-5	6	-11	16.0	15.8	0.17	15.4	13.6	1.86
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	26	25	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	-3	7	14.7	16.3	-1.63	15.9	13.7	2.20
Duncan Robinson	43	44	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	4	-7	16.3	15.5	0.78	14.3	14.2	0.09
Dru Smith	16	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	5	-9	18.8	15.3	3.53	13.3	14.5	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.94,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.91,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 113, MIA 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.56,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.97,0.77,1	93.5%
UTA 102, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.99,0.9,0.9,0.72,1	93.3%
MIL 91, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.75,0.87,0.94,0.73,1	93.2%