NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	131		Excitement	8.7 [190]		MVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): +46.2%
Miami Heat	124		Comeback	3.2 [458]		LVP	Kevin Love (MIA): -9.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.26,0.33,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.46	0.21	0.26	0.01	18	70%	0.50	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.11
Khris Middleton	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.26,0.26	0.08	0.17	-0.01	13	61%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.12	0.06	-0.03	11	73%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.10	0.00	2	150%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.13	0.17	-0.02	0.03	16	73%	0.36	4	-0.23	13	77%	0.05
Pat Connaughton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
MarJon Beauchamp	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.38	0.38	0.17	0.18	-0.04	10	87%	0.40	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.20	0.08	0.12	-0.00	11	64%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	13	67%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.00	9	78%	0.19	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	11	54%	0.17	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	27	51%	0.15	2	-0.11	7	71%	0.03
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kevin Love	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	11	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.7	36.3	16.7	29.3	2.0	35.3	149.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +7.9%

MIL +26.9%

MIL +13.6%

MIA -5.5%

MIL +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.2	14.5	127.2	122.8	113.9
season	14.3	14.9		117.0	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		111.0	114.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	15.1	12.8	14.3	14.0
MIA	12.1	13.7	14.9	16.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	83	81	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.30	18	-11	29	14.2	13.4	0.80	14.6	12.7	1.86
Khris Middleton	50	51	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.21	20	-13	33	14.1	14.0	0.02	14.4	13.9	0.49
Malik Beasley	80	80	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.31	16	-9	25	14.1	14.0	0.06	14.3	13.9	0.42
Damian Lillard	81	79	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-6	19	13.9	14.6	-0.69	13.9	15.2	-1.27
Brook Lopez	67	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.08	9	-2	11	14.7	12.9	1.78	14.4	13.9	0.46
MarJon Beauchamp	21	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	8	-9	11.2	14.8	-3.59	13.3	14.4	-1.17
Andre Jackson Jr.	7	6	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	10	-13	14.6	14.0	0.56	17.7	14.0	3.70
AJ Green	6	5	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.06	-2	9	-11	13.7	14.1	-0.41	12.2	14.3	-2.09
Bobby Portis	51	50	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.22	-12	19	-31	13.3	14.8	-1.46	13.6	14.8	-1.24
Pat Connaughton	31	30	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	15	-23	15.8	13.3	2.51	13.2	14.6	-1.36
Cameron Payne	38	36	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.20	-15	22	-37	14.0	14.1	-0.12	15.1	13.7	1.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	53	55	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	-3	-1	14.1	14.2	-0.12	14.7	13.3	1.34
Jamal Cain	24	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-10	13	14.4	14.1	0.25	14.5	13.9	0.53
Caleb Martin	56	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.39	5	-12	17	14.4	13.9	0.46	13.7	14.5	-0.81
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	69	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-12	17	14.4	13.8	0.55	13.5	15.1	-1.58
Duncan Robinson	67	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	7	-21	14.2	14.2	-0.07	14.1	13.9	0.25
Kyle Lowry	70	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-3	-1	14.0	14.6	-0.66	14.2	13.6	0.59
Josh Richardson	77	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	3	-13	14.1	14.4	-0.25	13.9	14.5	-0.53
Bam Adebayo	89	90	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.26	-16	9	-25	14.1	14.6	-0.45	14.1	13.8	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.34,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 111, MIL 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.18,0	90.8%
CHH 102, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.24,0.16,0	90.7%
NJN 124, MIL 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.61,0.45,0.17,0.02,0	90.7%