NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	102		Excitement	9.5 [91]		MVP	David Wesley (BOS): +13.8%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	3.4 [229]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -47.8%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vlade Divac	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Burrell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	13	63%	0.14	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	15	33%	0.03	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	12	52%	0.09	2	-0.15	7	86%	0.03
Anthony Goldwire	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	7	37%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	18	51%	-0.09	3	-0.10	13	85%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.14	0.14	0.26	-0.12	0.01	14	100%	0.57	3	-0.43	6	83%	0.04
Brett Szabo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alton Lister	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Minor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.05
Eric Williams	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	14	51%	0.15	4	-0.25	9	78%	0.04
Dino Radja	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.04	-0.15	0.00	10	46%	-0.06	1	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.19,-0.26,-0.3,-0.28,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48	-0.48	-0.15	-0.32	0.00	14	39%	-0.35	3	-0.13	8	25%	-0.27

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.6	23.2	15.4	25.6	2.4	36.0	126.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -27.2%

CHH +11.8%

CHH +12.5%

CHH +55.4%

BOS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	BOS	NBA	CHH	BOS	NBA
this game	15.9	14.1	15.6	106.2	102.1	104.4
season	15.7	14.8		108.0	101.8
opponent	14.7	16.0		109.5	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	16.0	16.9	17.2	13.7	15.9
BOS	15.3	13.1	12.1	15.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	89	89	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	1	2	16.2	12.6	3.64	14.2	11.9	2.37
Glen Rice	89	89	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	1	2	16.2	12.6	3.64	14.2	11.9	2.37
Dell Curry	67	67	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	2	0	15.6	16.7	-1.11	13.6	15.0	-1.41
Matt Geiger	62	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.52	-3	7	-10	15.3	17.1	-1.72	13.4	15.3	-1.90
Anthony Goldwire	30	30	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.20	4	0	4	14.9	16.4	-1.57	14.7	13.7	0.99
Scott Burrell	23	23	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	-2	8	16.0	15.9	0.07	15.3	13.7	1.65
Muggsy Bogues	25	27	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	-1	6	17.0	15.6	1.48	15.1	13.6	1.52
Vlade Divac	34	35	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.14	7	-3	10	17.1	15.3	1.72	15.3	13.4	1.90
Malik Rose	7	7	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	3	-2	12.6	16.2	-3.64	11.9	14.2	-2.37
Tony Smith	54	52	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.17	-8	12	-20	16.0	15.9	0.12	12.8	15.5	-2.76

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alton Lister	15	17	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.05	8	-12	20	12.3	14.4	-2.12	15.4	16.1	-0.72
Marty Conlon	20	22	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.14	10	-14	24	12.8	14.4	-1.58	16.5	15.8	0.72
Brett Szabo	11	10	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-8	12	14.3	14.0	0.25	18.7	15.6	3.07
Antoine Walker	68	67	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.28	8	-12	20	13.9	14.4	-0.43	15.6	16.7	-1.06
Eric Williams	32	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.22	-10	6	-16	15.7	13.2	2.41	17.6	15.1	2.52
Todd Day	65	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.59	9	-13	22	13.3	15.6	-2.35	15.4	17.2	-1.77
David Wesley	96	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.1	0.0	14.05	15.9	0.0	15.95
Greg Minor	36	34	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.08	-18	14	-32	14.8	13.6	1.25	15.6	16.1	-0.56
Rick Fox	71	71	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.27	-13	9	-22	14.3	13.4	0.83	15.7	16.7	-0.99
Dino Radja	66	65	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.32	-14	10	-24	14.2	13.6	0.61	16.0	15.8	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.24,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 112, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.16,0	91.1%
DAL 98, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.73,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.08,0	91.0%
UTA 97, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.71,0.62,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.19,0.22,0.04,0.27,0	90.9%