NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	6.7 [500]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +18.6%
Charlotte Hornets	105		Comeback	2.6 [752]		LVP	LaMelo Ball (CHA): -25.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.08	-0.02	13	64%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.17	0.16	0.05	0.04	14	76%	0.26	3	-0.09	14	79%	-0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.01	13	65%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.01	8	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	16	55%	0.13	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Dru Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	10	27%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.18,0.17	0.17	0.21	-0.01	0.02	23	67%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bryce McGowens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	7	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	5	79%	0.08	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Nick Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JT Thor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.01	-0.05	6	42%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Richards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.11	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Leaky Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Theo Maledon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	17%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
LaMelo Ball	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.10	0.04	26	48%	-0.00	8	-0.25	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	24.0	0.3	35.6	1.0	30.2	120.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.2%

MIA +5.0%

CHA -0.8%

MIA +26.4%

MIA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.8	14.5	113.3	110.5	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		112.3	108.3
opponent	14.5	14.8		118.7	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	12.7	15.5	16.5	15.1
CHA	14.2	14.4	16.5	14.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	69	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-5	16	15.2	14.6	0.66	14.1	16.4	-2.34
Jimmy Butler	67	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	4	-2	15.6	13.9	1.73	15.2	13.8	1.48
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	67	64	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	0	6	15.7	13.5	2.20	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Bam Adebayo	74	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	5	-4	14.3	17.3	-2.97	14.8	14.8	0.02
Duncan Robinson	73	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	5	-4	14.4	16.9	-2.46	14.9	14.4	0.53
Haywood Highsmith	69	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	0	6	14.3	16.9	-2.62	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Thomas Bryant	7	8	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	1	4	14.9	15.1	-0.21	12.4	15.0	-2.64
Kevin Love	28	24	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	4	-2	17.0	14.3	2.73	15.5	14.6	0.89
Dru Smith	8	7	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	5	-4	11.7	15.3	-3.59	16.0	14.7	1.31
Kyle Lowry	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	11	-16	16.1	14.6	1.48	16.1	14.3	1.85

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Maledon	46	46	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-9	12	15.5	14.1	1.46	14.7	15.4	-0.75
Leaky Black	6	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-2	-2	17.7	14.6	3.07	10.2	15.4	-5.20
Nick Richards	48	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-11	16	14.4	15.2	-0.84	16.2	13.8	2.39
LaMelo Ball	77	81	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-8	10	14.4	16.6	-2.25	15.3	13.7	1.63
Nick Smith Jr.	31	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-4	2	13.8	15.3	-1.46	15.3	14.9	0.34
JT Thor	56	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	1	-8	15.0	14.5	0.43	14.3	16.1	-1.73
Ish Smith	37	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	5	-16	14.9	14.7	0.26	15.4	14.8	0.52
Mark Williams	47	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	5	-16	15.2	14.4	0.84	13.8	16.2	-2.39
Bryce McGowens	55	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-3	0	14.3	15.4	-1.10	15.9	13.7	2.17
P.J. Washington	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-4	2	15.1	13.9	1.21	15.0	15.2	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.26,0.14,0.06,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.13,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 113, SAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.31,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.04,0.1,0.01,0	93.3%
BOS 95, CLE 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.1,0.02,0	93.2%
DEN 101, DET 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0,0	92.9%