NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	128		Excitement	4.2 [1043]		MVP	Pascal Siakam (TOR): +20.0%
Charlotte Hornets	108		Comeback	1.2 [1316]		LVP	Theo Maledon (CHA): -10.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.20	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.25	0.01	0.06	24	72%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
O.G. Anunoby	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.22	0.01	0.04	13	88%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.04	17	51%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	12	67%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Christian Koloko	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	12	50%	0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Dowtin Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wieskamp	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dalano Banton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malachi Flynn	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	9	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Svi Mykhailiuk	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.15	0.00	0.04	17	74%	0.17	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
James Bouknight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.00	0.04	11	87%	0.16	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Xavier Sneed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.06	3	150%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	15	48%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Kobi Simmons	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce McGowens	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	61%	0.03	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
JT Thor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kai Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	10	48%	-0.01	3	-0.05	1	0%	0.00
Theo Maledon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.15	-0.01	-0.05	16	25%	-0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.4	23.4	14.5	25.6	2.4	23.5	114.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +24.9%

TOR +3.2%

TOR +2.5%

TOR +19.3%

TOR +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHA	NBA	TOR	CHA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.6	14.4	132.0	111.3	113.4
season	14.7	14.0		114.0	107.8
opponent	14.3	14.5		114.4	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.5	13.3	15.1	16.7	15.1
CHA	13.9	16.7	13.1	14.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.G. Anunoby	69	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	4	12	15.6	13.9	1.68	14.0	16.2	-2.17
Fred VanVleet	76	77	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.09	18	2	16	14.4	17.7	-3.25	14.8	13.5	1.28
Pascal Siakam	77	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	4	12	14.9	16.0	-1.17	15.1	12.8	2.26
Scottie Barnes	76	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	5	10	14.9	16.0	-1.06	14.3	15.6	-1.38
Jakob Poeltl	60	61	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.12	16	4	12	14.5	16.2	-1.68	15.3	13.4	1.92
Precious Achiuwa	23	24	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	14	-8	13.2	15.7	-2.56	17.4	13.6	3.73
Chris Boucher	36	35	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	18	-16	15.0	15.2	-0.20	12.5	15.7	-3.26
Christian Koloko	33	33	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	18	-16	16.0	14.7	1.28	13.4	15.2	-1.73
Jeff Dowtin Jr.	22	22	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.11	-3	23	-26	16.2	14.8	1.37	14.0	14.7	-0.73
Malachi Flynn	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.17	6	14	-8	19.0	14.8	4.18	16.7	14.4	2.24
Joe Wieskamp	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	26.0	14.9	11.11	15.5	14.5	0.95
Dalano Banton	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	26.0	14.9	11.11	15.5	14.5	0.95
Ron Harper Jr.	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	26.0	14.9	11.11	15.5	14.5	0.95

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobi Simmons	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-18	16	15.5	14.5	0.95	26.0	14.9	11.11
Xavier Sneed	33	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-18	16	12.8	15.5	-2.60	15.7	14.9	0.81
Svi Mykhailiuk	67	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-11	2	14.8	14.0	0.87	15.3	14.7	0.63
JT Thor	71	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-13	6	13.9	16.5	-2.59	15.0	15.6	-0.64
Bryce McGowens	62	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	-7	-6	13.8	15.9	-2.11	15.0	15.4	-0.40
Mark Williams	54	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	-5	-10	15.8	13.0	2.77	14.4	16.0	-1.57
Theo Maledon	80	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	-4	-12	14.9	12.9	2.04	15.7	12.0	3.74
Kai Jones	65	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	-2	-16	14.7	14.4	0.29	15.0	15.4	-0.41
James Bouknight	51	49	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.13	-18	-2	-16	15.2	13.9	1.33	14.4	15.8	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, DET 88	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0	96.6%
TOR 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
ORL 97, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%