NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	117		Excitement	4.0 [1071]		MVP	Jalen Green (HOU): +15.2%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	1.2 [1074]		LVP	Usman Garuba (HOU): -8.2%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	-0.01	18	62%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	12	64%	0.11	3	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Trey Murphy III	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.02	13	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Herbert Jones	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	7	76%	0.05	2	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	4	67%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dyson Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	24	52%	0.05	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jaxson Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Green	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.22	0.00	0.07	22	69%	0.17	2	-0.01	14	100%	0.05
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.00	0.08	15	66%	0.07	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
Kenyon Martin Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	5	80%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Christopher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	8	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	10	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Usman Garuba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.7	27.0	14.5	31.2	2.5	38.3	138.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +47.8%

HOU -10.6%

NOP +2.8%

NOP +10.8%

HOU -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	HOU	NBA	NOP	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	16.0	14.4	128.6	115.1	113.4
season	14.2	14.8		113.4	109.8
opponent	13.9	14.6		118.0	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.7	14.4	15.8	17.1	15.3
HOU	17.6	16.2	16.2	14.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	0	10	15.5	14.0	1.53	16.1	15.9	0.18
Trey Murphy III	69	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	1	8	15.1	15.7	-0.55	17.1	12.3	4.84
Brandon Ingram	74	75	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	2	6	15.1	16.2	-1.12	16.1	15.9	0.18
Herbert Jones	62	63	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	4	2	14.9	16.1	-1.23	16.8	14.4	2.46
Jonas Valanciunas	62	64	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	7	-4	15.1	15.5	-0.37	16.7	14.6	2.15
Larry Nance Jr.	23	24	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.08	10	0	10	14.7	15.5	-0.76	15.1	16.4	-1.28
Josh Richardson	33	34	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	5	0	15.7	15.0	0.73	14.6	16.8	-2.18
Naji Marshall	35	35	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	8	-6	16.2	14.7	1.57	13.6	17.5	-3.85
Dyson Daniels	16	18	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	10	-10	14.0	15.5	-1.53	15.9	16.1	-0.18
Jaxson Hayes	6	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	13	-16	18.7	15.0	3.64	12.0	16.3	-4.26

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Christopher	16	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-8	6	16.9	15.8	1.09	13.9	15.5	-1.58
Usman Garuba	23	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-4	-2	14.0	16.7	-2.76	16.5	14.9	1.57
Alperen Sengun	58	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-8	6	17.1	14.3	2.71	14.7	16.3	-1.63
Tari Eason	44	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-6	2	14.6	17.3	-2.69	16.0	14.5	1.51
Jae'Sean Tate	43	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-3	-4	14.6	17.3	-2.66	15.9	14.7	1.26
Kenyon Martin Jr.	53	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	17.4	14.2	3.26	14.6	16.0	-1.40
Jalen Green	76	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-4	-2	15.9	16.7	-0.82	15.4	14.4	1.03
Jabari Smith Jr.	75	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-4	-2	16.3	15.1	1.21	15.3	15.1	0.20
Kevin Porter Jr.	77	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.15	-9	-1	-8	16.3	14.9	1.32	15.0	16.6	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 92, MIL 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
SAS 86, MIA 70	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
PHI 103, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%