NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	92		Excitement	3.3 [1104]		MVP	Tony Delk (PHX): +7.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	81		Comeback	1.0 [487]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -17.2%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	14	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jake Tsakalidis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	6	69%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	27	43%	0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	6	31%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.21	0.00	-0.07	15	28%	-0.06	5	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	71%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	8	62%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	20	53%	0.02	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	0.05	11	52%	-0.07	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.17	0.00	-0.07	15	27%	-0.09	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.21	-0.00	-0.04	14	22%	-0.12	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.5	25.4	15.4	22.3	1.8	27.2	117.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +25.2%

MIL -0.8%

PHX +23.7%

MIL -0.8%

PHX +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIL	NBA	PHX	MIL	NBA
this game	17.5	15.0	15.6	103.4	92.0	102.3
season	15.1	15.3		101.0	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.8		105.1	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	17.6	16.8	20.6	15.6	17.5
MIL	15.1	15.9	15.3	13.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Marbury	81	80	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-3	17	17.5	17.9	-0.37	15.2	12.9	2.33
Rodney Rogers	32	33	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.13	17	-6	23	17.8	17.4	0.48	15.5	14.7	0.75
Shawn Marion	77	75	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	6	-1	17.6	17.4	0.14	14.8	16.2	-1.37
Anfernee Hardaway	65	64	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	5	1	17.9	16.5	1.48	15.0	15.1	-0.13
Jake Tsakalidis	34	36	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	0	11	15.3	18.9	-3.63	15.2	14.8	0.44
Dan Majerle	39	38	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	9	-7	16.3	18.5	-2.19	14.0	15.7	-1.69
Jake Voskuhl	55	52	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	11	-11	18.9	15.3	3.63	14.8	15.2	-0.44
Tony Delk	32	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	9	-7	16.8	17.9	-1.13	14.5	15.2	-0.72
Bo Outlaw	30	30	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	13	-15	18.8	16.9	1.85	16.2	14.4	1.84

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	31	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	-2	-7	15.4	14.8	0.62	16.0	18.3	-2.33
Michael Redd	52	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-11	11	14.0	16.5	-2.51	16.6	18.9	-2.31
Darvin Ham	41	43	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-6	1	14.3	15.6	-1.30	16.2	18.8	-2.66
Joel Przybilla	43	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-7	3	15.3	14.7	0.52	17.7	17.4	0.32
Anthony Mason	68	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-4	-3	15.5	13.2	2.31	18.5	14.7	3.80
Tim Thomas	63	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-3	-5	14.9	15.2	-0.35	17.8	16.8	1.03
Ray Allen	69	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.05	-10	-1	-9	15.0	15.1	-0.08	18.2	15.3	2.82
Sam Cassell	73	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	1	-13	15.4	13.0	2.40	17.8	16.1	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 105, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
TOR 101, IND 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
CHI 99, ATL 82	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%