NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	112		Excitement	7.8 [381]		MVP	Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU): +67.6%
Houston Rockets	114		Comeback	43.6 [21]		LVP	Alperen Sengun (HOU): -10.7%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.04	-0.01	16	65%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Naji Marshall	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.01	8	62%	0.11	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Trey Murphy III	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.13,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	11	57%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.01	20	61%	0.16	4	-0.10	11	91%	0.07
Herbert Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Nance Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dyson Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.68	0.68	0.03	0.65	0.00	8	69%	0.73	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin Jr.	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.12	0.01	7	70%	0.20	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Jalen Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	20	54%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.02	6	71%	0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	14	61%	0.10	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.06
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Christopher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Usman Garuba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	17	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	27.3	14.4	28.3	1.8	37.0	134.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +74.2%

NOP -18.9%

HOU +6.3%

NOP -10.9%

NOP -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	HOU	NBA	NOP	HOU	NBA
this game	14.5	15.8	14.4	117.9	120.0	113.4
season	14.2	14.8		113.4	109.8
opponent	13.9	14.6		118.0	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	15.3	12.2	14.7	15.9	14.5
HOU	16.0	15.9	16.7	14.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Murphy III	69	71	0.68	-1.18	1.87	0.13	19	-21	40	14.2	15.2	-1.01	17.0	12.2	4.78
CJ McCollum	75	75	0.53	-1.03	1.57	-0.08	21	-23	44	14.0	16.3	-2.29	16.6	12.7	3.89
Jonas Valanciunas	66	66	0.47	-0.97	1.43	0.03	15	-17	32	14.7	13.9	0.81	16.3	14.7	1.58
Dyson Daniels	9	9	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.18	-17	15	-32	18.7	14.1	4.61	9.1	16.5	-7.41
Herbert Jones	56	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.64	8	-10	18	14.2	14.8	-0.60	16.4	14.9	1.48
Brandon Ingram	74	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.54	1	-3	4	14.9	12.9	2.04	16.0	15.0	1.04
Naji Marshall	42	42	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.46	-14	12	-26	13.8	15.0	-1.19	13.9	17.4	-3.52
Larry Nance Jr.	30	30	-0.98	0.48	-1.46	-0.39	-20	18	-38	14.1	14.7	-0.58	14.8	16.3	-1.44
Josh Richardson	54	51	-1.10	0.60	-1.69	-0.42	-23	21	-44	14.9	14.0	0.91	14.7	17.1	-2.41

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae'Sean Tate	44	43	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.40	17	-15	32	14.1	17.3	-3.27	14.4	14.6	-0.22
Kevin Porter Jr.	76	76	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.49	3	-1	4	15.9	15.6	0.24	14.9	12.8	2.07
Alperen Sengun	70	70	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	0	2	16.5	14.0	2.47	14.8	13.6	1.16
Tari Eason	46	45	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.32	29	-27	56	13.4	18.1	-4.75	15.9	13.2	2.69
Jalen Green	79	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	-1	4	16.3	13.6	2.72	14.7	13.5	1.20
Jabari Smith Jr.	57	58	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.63	-18	20	-38	17.3	13.7	3.61	13.4	16.2	-2.73
Josh Christopher	24	25	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	-1	4	15.2	16.0	-0.88	14.2	14.6	-0.45
Usman Garuba	16	17	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	1	0	13.7	16.2	-2.49	13.1	14.8	-1.75
Boban Marjanovic	5	5	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	5	-8	14.4	15.9	-1.50	12.4	14.6	-2.21
Kenyon Martin Jr.	58	57	-0.63	1.13	-1.77	0.16	-27	29	-56	17.2	13.7	3.47	14.1	15.1	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.21,0.16,0.09,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 90, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.14,0.2,0.07,0.01,0.07,0.15,0.17,1	89.9%
PHI 101, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.27,1	89.5%
WAS 116, ATL 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.19,0.24,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.25,0.16,0.32,0.23,1	89.0%