NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	6.6 [592]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +34.3%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	2.6 [569]		LVP	Ish Smith (DEN): -6.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.34	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.24	0.11	0.01	14	87%	0.34	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	6	71%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Thomas Bryant	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	5	83%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	12	62%	0.18	2	-0.07	2	50%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.01	9	55%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	57%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	5	80%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.02	-0.02	18	56%	0.10	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.05
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	13	56%	0.09	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	14	54%	0.08	1	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.02	20	51%	0.07	1	-0.06	5	60%	-0.04
Jamaree Bouyea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.7	25.0	14.6	22.7	1.8	39.5	129.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +57.7%

MIA -2.6%

MIA -8.5%

MIA -1.2%

DEN +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	16.4	14.4	124.4	118.7	113.4
season	14.7	15.1		116.6	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.1	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.9	14.9	13.2	16.1	15.4
MIA	15.6	18.7	16.8	14.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	65	66	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.41	5	-1	6	15.0	16.7	-1.71	15.9	17.7	-1.80
Michael Porter Jr.	63	65	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-2	8	15.4	15.6	-0.21	16.1	17.1	-1.04
Bruce Brown	63	63	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	1	2	14.9	16.7	-1.75	15.8	17.7	-1.88
Vlatko Cancar	57	56	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	5	-6	14.9	16.4	-1.45	15.0	18.5	-3.48
Christian Braun	46	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	0	4	15.7	15.2	0.47	18.0	14.7	3.24
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	70	71	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.21	-2	6	-8	15.5	15.1	0.44	15.6	19.1	-3.49
Jeff Green	33	35	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-1	6	16.4	14.9	1.45	18.5	15.0	3.48
Ish Smith	27	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	3	-2	16.7	14.9	1.75	17.7	15.8	1.88
Thomas Bryant	26	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	5	-6	16.1	15.2	0.94	17.7	15.9	1.80

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	65	64	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-9	14	15.8	17.8	-1.95	15.9	14.2	1.71
Orlando Robinson	24	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-6	8	17.4	16.0	1.42	16.2	15.2	1.10
Haywood Highsmith	47	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	2	-8	18.2	14.4	3.80	16.0	14.8	1.24
Jamaree Bouyea	52	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	6	-16	17.9	14.3	3.57	15.3	15.6	-0.32
Max Strus	79	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-6	8	16.3	16.8	-0.53	15.4	15.9	-0.54
Bam Adebayo	67	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	2	-8	16.0	17.4	-1.42	15.2	16.2	-1.10
Caleb Martin	58	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	0	-4	14.9	19.0	-4.17	15.1	16.0	-0.89
Jimmy Butler	63	64	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.48	-3	-1	-2	15.8	17.7	-1.88	15.0	16.5	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 113, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.04,0,0,0	93.2%
SAC 118, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.03,0.09,0.02,0	92.9%
PHX 119, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	92.8%