NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	95		Excitement	10.1 [81]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +73.4%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	11.2 [311]		LVP	Alperen Sengun (HOU): -19.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Smith Jr.	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.05,0.17	0.13	0.07	0.03	16	63%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.11
Josh Christopher	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	0.00	7	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tari Eason	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	62%	0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Daishen Nix	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
TyTy Washington Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	7	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Usman Garuba	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae'Sean Tate	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	7	29%	0.03	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Jalen Green	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.02	-0.20	0.16	-0.01	19	28%	0.20	4	-0.23	1	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin Jr.	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.08,-0.08	0.03	-0.12	-0.01	9	74%	0.19	5	-0.27	5	80%	0.03
Alperen Sengun	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19	-0.06	-0.13	0.01	9	50%	-0.09	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,0.73	0.73	0.03	0.70	-0.00	11	53%	0.75	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.16
Tyler Herro	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.46	0.46	0.15	0.32	0.01	20	70%	0.64	4	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.02	11	69%	0.15	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	12	52%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamaree Bouyea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	9	33%	-0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.7	30.6	14.8	24.4	2.5	40.1	139.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.8%

MIA +15.8%

HOU -45.7%

MIA +17.9%

MIA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.7	14.4	97.9	101.0	113.4
season	14.8	15.1		109.8	111.9
opponent	14.6	13.9		112.1	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.9	14.1	15.7	15.8	15.1
MIA	14.5	15.3	16.3	13.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
TyTy Washington Jr.	45	46	0.81	-1.31	2.12	0.51	10	-12	22	14.8	15.3	-0.52	14.8	14.7	0.04
Tari Eason	38	39	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.06	11	-13	24	15.1	15.1	-0.04	14.5	14.9	-0.38
Josh Christopher	21	21	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.08	6	-8	14	15.0	15.1	-0.19	15.4	14.5	0.88
Usman Garuba	29	29	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.09	2	-4	6	14.3	15.4	-1.08	13.9	15.1	-1.26
Alperen Sengun	61	60	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	0	-2	15.7	14.1	1.58	15.0	14.2	0.83
Daishen Nix	28	26	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.65	7	-9	16	12.7	16.1	-3.31	17.2	13.8	3.31
Jabari Smith Jr.	68	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.52	-3	1	-4	15.1	15.1	-0.00	15.2	13.7	1.55
Jae'Sean Tate	51	50	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.44	-13	11	-24	15.5	14.7	0.77	14.0	15.5	-1.46
Jalen Green	66	66	-0.87	0.37	-1.25	-0.61	-9	7	-16	15.3	14.7	0.63	14.5	15.2	-0.72
Kenyon Martin Jr.	78	76	-1.31	0.81	-2.12	-0.75	-19	17	-36	15.6	13.2	2.42	14.2	16.9	-2.79

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	74	76	1.34	-0.84	2.18	0.78	19	-17	36	14.3	16.2	-1.93	15.7	12.9	2.87
Bam Adebayo	70	71	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.40	21	-19	40	13.9	17.1	-3.21	15.9	13.0	2.87
Jimmy Butler	56	58	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.55	7	-5	12	14.6	14.9	-0.36	15.0	15.2	-0.17
Max Strus	68	70	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.76	-5	7	-12	15.1	13.7	1.40	14.4	16.9	-2.53
Gabe Vincent	70	70	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.53	0	2	-2	14.9	14.3	0.59	14.9	15.7	-0.88
Jamaree Bouyea	29	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.10	2	0	2	14.5	14.9	-0.37	15.2	15.0	0.21
Haywood Highsmith	48	45	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.23	-8	10	-18	15.1	14.4	0.65	15.1	15.1	0.06
Orlando Robinson	26	26	-0.51	1.01	-1.52	0.05	-19	21	-40	17.1	13.9	3.21	13.0	15.9	-2.87
Caleb Martin	39	41	-0.74	1.24	-1.99	-0.54	-7	9	-16	14.6	14.8	-0.25	15.5	14.8	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.27,0.1,0.23,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 68, TOR 70	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.27,1	91.2%
WAS 110, BOS 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.8,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.48,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.31,0.11,0.14,0.08,1	90.4%
TOR 90, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.28,0.45,0.26,1	90.4%