NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	6.6 [602]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +33.0%
New Orleans Pelicans	98		Comeback	1.5 [717]		LVP	CJ McCollum (NOP): -54.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.33	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.33	0.13	0.23	0.03	15	78%	0.42	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Brown	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.06	0.01	10	55%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	5	64%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	7	61%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Jeff Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	70%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12,-0.03	0.08	-0.11	-0.00	21	60%	0.15	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vlatko Cancar	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	9	39%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.13	0.01	12	71%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willy Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.15	0.01	7	75%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.09
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	48%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	40%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	9	61%	0.04	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.25	-0.25	-0.10	-0.16	-0.01	8	37%	-0.12	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.14,-0.54	-0.54	-0.13	-0.41	0.00	22	43%	-0.42	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.8	28.5	15.3	25.7	1.7	28.3	125.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +107.9%

NOP -23.2%

NOP -31.8%

NOP -5.0%

DEN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	15.6	15.6	14.4	106.5	106.5	113.4
season	14.7	14.2		116.6	113.4
opponent	14.6	14.5		111.6	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	14.7	16.9	16.5	15.6
NOP	15.7	17.3	13.1	16.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	75	75	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	-5	11	15.6	15.7	-0.11	16.0	13.7	2.27
Aaron Gordon	46	45	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	1	-1	15.3	15.9	-0.55	15.8	15.3	0.52
Nikola Jokic	72	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.50	-6	7	-13	15.5	16.0	-0.48	14.9	17.8	-2.86
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	62	61	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.58	-10	11	-21	15.7	15.4	0.24	14.7	17.3	-2.62
Bruce Brown	69	67	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.55	-10	11	-21	15.5	15.9	-0.45	14.8	17.7	-2.92
Vlatko Cancar	24	25	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.08	11	-10	21	15.9	15.5	0.45	17.7	14.8	2.92
Jeff Green	33	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	-6	13	14.3	16.3	-1.93	17.2	14.6	2.60
Christian Braun	38	37	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	-3	7	16.4	15.0	1.42	15.9	15.3	0.66
Zeke Nnaji	46	47	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	-2	5	16.2	15.0	1.13	15.3	15.8	-0.52

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	14	13	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.10	6	-7	13	11.9	16.2	-4.28	16.8	15.4	1.47
Devonte' Graham	36	37	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-5	9	15.5	15.6	-0.13	15.7	15.5	0.25
Willy Hernangomez	46	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.47	13	-14	27	14.6	16.5	-1.98	16.0	15.2	0.88
Herbert Jones	46	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.33	7	-8	15	15.7	15.4	0.28	15.6	15.6	0.03
Jonas Valanciunas	35	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	1	-3	15.2	15.8	-0.57	15.3	15.7	-0.43
Larry Nance Jr.	40	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	5	-11	16.8	14.6	2.16	16.2	15.1	1.13
Dyson Daniels	12	13	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.13	-14	13	-27	19.7	14.9	4.82	14.9	15.7	-0.76
Jaxson Hayes	47	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.00	-10	9	-19	16.1	15.0	1.17	15.3	15.9	-0.61
CJ McCollum	70	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.50	6	-7	13	14.9	17.5	-2.62	15.7	15.1	0.64
Jose Alvarado	50	51	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	4	-9	16.6	14.4	2.20	15.3	16.0	-0.72
Trey Murphy III	64	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	3	-7	15.1	16.5	-1.41	15.1	16.8	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.07,0.06,0.15,0.05,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 103, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
NYK 93, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.24,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.16,0	93.1%
HOU 95, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.08,0	93.0%