NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Excitement	10.2 [73]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +55.7%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	50.3 [44]		LVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): -21.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kenrich Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05	0.09	-0.04	-0.00	8	72%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.12
Tre Mann	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	3	67%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lindy Waters III	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.02	6	56%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eugene Omoruyi	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	3	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Giddey	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.11	0.06	-0.01	18	47%	0.21	6	-0.24	2	100%	0.02
Aaron Wiggins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.13,0.08,-0.12	0.02	-0.14	-0.01	18	60%	0.09	6	-0.21	7	86%	0.02
Luguentz Dort	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	13	37%	-0.05	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.56	0.56	0.15	0.38	-0.03	17	61%	0.62	2	-0.07	23	100%	0.20
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.14	-0.00	6	71%	0.24	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.06
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.06,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	16	56%	0.12	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.00	19	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	7	36%	-0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	12	43%	0.08	7	-0.30	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.4	32.9	15.8	29.4	3.5	37.6	150.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -36.2%

MIA +86.1%

OKC -5.7%

MIA +10.4%

OKC -4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	15.1	14.4	111.0	110.9	113.4
season	13.7	15.1		113.5	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.1	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.3	12.1	14.3	14.8	13.6
MIA	16.0	14.6	15.1	14.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenrich Williams	48	46	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.06	6	-7	13	14.1	13.1	1.03	15.4	14.8	0.53
Luguentz Dort	68	69	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.26	-1	0	-1	13.1	14.6	-1.55	15.1	15.1	0.02
Lindy Waters III	24	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	0	-1	13.7	13.5	0.13	15.0	15.1	-0.16
Tre Mann	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	2	-5	17.5	12.9	4.57	16.4	14.8	1.55
Eugene Omoruyi	32	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	6	-13	13.9	13.4	0.45	15.4	14.9	0.51
Isaiah Joe	35	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.40	4	-5	9	13.3	13.7	-0.48	14.0	15.7	-1.72
Aaron Wiggins	24	24	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	0	-1	15.4	13.0	2.43	15.3	15.0	0.33
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	84	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.53	2	-3	5	13.1	15.9	-2.74	14.7	17.1	-2.40
Jalen Williams	69	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	2	-5	13.5	13.8	-0.34	15.3	14.6	0.75
Mike Muscala	36	37	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.64	3	-4	7	12.2	14.3	-2.15	14.4	15.5	-1.06
Josh Giddey	66	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.44	-4	3	-7	13.6	13.5	0.06	15.6	14.0	1.60

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	80	81	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.51	5	-4	9	14.9	15.7	-0.80	13.3	14.9	-1.64
Jamal Cain	69	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.61	0	1	-1	15.0	15.2	-0.20	13.9	12.8	1.11
Gabe Vincent	84	84	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.52	2	-1	3	14.8	16.4	-1.53	13.2	15.5	-2.30
Victor Oladipo	73	69	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	-1	3	14.6	16.4	-1.82	13.7	13.3	0.36
Max Strus	88	88	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.43	-1	2	-3	15.3	13.5	1.77	13.9	11.2	2.73
Dewayne Dedmon	11	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	4	-7	15.7	15.0	0.73	13.8	13.5	0.26
Haywood Highsmith	51	51	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	2	-3	15.1	15.0	0.08	13.5	13.6	-0.04
Orlando Robinson	49	48	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.16	1	0	1	16.0	14.2	1.87	13.5	13.7	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.37,0.53,0.6,0.78,0.69,0.55,0.15,0.02,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 71, LAL 72	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.43,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.72,0.32,0.26,1	89.0%
CHI 90, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.14,0.15,1	88.9%
DAL 99, OKC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.31,0.42,1	88.9%