NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	131		Excitement	9.9 [97]		MVP	Aaron Gordon (DEN): +73.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	126		Comeback	21.8 [117]		LVP	Davon Reed (DEN): -18.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0.73	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.24,0.38,0.48,0.61,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.73	0.21	0.53	0.01	16	72%	0.76	1	-0.03	11	64%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.2	0.25	-0.03	0.03	15	81%	0.40	4	-0.21	18	89%	0.05
Bruce Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06	-0.04	0.07	-0.03	14	61%	0.20	6	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	10	58%	0.04	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Jack White	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Vlatko Cancar	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16	0.03	-0.17	0.01	18	50%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Davon Reed	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.02	7	0%	-0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.42	0.42	0.20	0.21	-0.01	11	95%	0.45	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aleksej Pokusevski	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	8	72%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.06
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	16	53%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.11	-0.08	0.01	20	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	14	100%	0.08
Tre Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eugene Omoruyi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	11	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.08	-0.13	0.03	9	67%	-0.02	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	12	46%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.2	1.8	33.4	14.5	26.3	1.8	33.8	1.8	16.5	156.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +40.1%

DEN +16.2%

DEN +19.3%

OKC -27.8%

DEN +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.9	13.6	14.4	122.4	115.6	113.4
season	14.7	13.7		116.6	113.5
opponent	14.5	14.5		112.8	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.6	15.9	19.1	13.1	16.1	15.9
OKC	15.7	11.3	12.2	15.1	13.9	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlatko Cancar	70	72	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.51	6	-1	7	16.0	15.7	0.34	12.9	14.9	-1.96
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	83	86	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-7	19	15.3	18.1	-2.87	14.1	11.4	2.70
Bruce Brown	91	95	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-1	7	15.5	18.1	-2.55	13.7	12.9	0.73
Nikola Jokic	89	92	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-6	17	15.0	20.4	-5.40	13.9	11.6	2.35
Aaron Gordon	77	77	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.30	5	0	5	16.1	15.5	0.60	13.4	14.0	-0.61
Zeke Nnaji	30	32	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	6	-7	15.5	16.1	-0.60	14.0	13.4	0.61
Jack White	18	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.10	-5	10	-15	20.4	15.0	5.40	11.6	13.9	-2.35
Christian Braun	26	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	9	-13	17.7	15.3	2.42	12.7	13.9	-1.15
Davon Reed	51	47	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.13	-5	10	-15	16.5	15.3	1.21	13.9	13.4	0.50

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	71	66	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.01	6	-11	17	13.6	13.6	0.02	16.7	14.7	2.01
Isaiah Joe	43	44	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.43	17	-22	39	12.4	14.3	-1.86	16.0	15.8	0.25
Aleksej Pokusevski	58	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-1	-3	13.2	14.0	-0.77	15.4	16.5	-1.13
Tre Mann	38	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	3	-11	13.3	13.7	-0.35	15.8	15.9	-0.10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	85	84	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.33	2	-7	9	13.4	14.3	-0.93	16.6	13.3	3.30
Darius Bazley	28	29	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.05	-12	7	-19	12.4	14.0	-1.53	15.1	16.2	-1.04
Luguentz Dort	75	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-6	7	13.7	13.3	0.44	15.8	16.2	-0.41
Eugene Omoruyi	27	25	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.01	-13	8	-21	15.1	13.1	2.00	13.2	16.7	-3.52
Josh Giddey	58	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.16	-12	7	-19	14.7	12.3	2.36	15.3	16.6	-1.28
Jalen Williams	62	57	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.53	-2	-3	1	13.8	13.3	0.44	16.7	14.9	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.85,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.54,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 101, CHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.3,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.85,0.58,0.54,0.39,0.17,0.04,0.05,0	87.7%
SAC 114, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.47,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.55,0.28,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.19,0	86.7%
DAL 111, ATL 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.75,0.63,0.45,0.58,0.54,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.01,0	86.2%