NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	8.6 [161]		MVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): +43.9%
Atlanta Hawks	103		Comeback	59.2 [16]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -18.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0.44	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,0.18,0.18,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44	-0.02	0.45	-0.00	18	50%	0.52	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.04,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1	0.17	-0.04	0.03	26	65%	0.16	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.06
Eduardo Najera	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.06	6	79%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.03	16	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.19,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.08	0.30	-0.00	14	57%	0.38	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.10	0.03	15	55%	0.15	3	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.11	-0.02	21	59%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	39%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.03	-0.18	-0.00	16	47%	-0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	16	34%	-0.14	1	-0.04	6	83%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	29.1	2.8	28.0	18.7	25.3	3.6	34.6	1.8	16.0	160.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +58.4%

ATL -7.6%

DAL +14.1%

ATL -18.2%

DAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ATL	NBA	DAL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.8	15.3	113.3	106.2	106.0
season	15.2	16.0		107.2	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.5		106.0	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	13.3	17.4	17.2	15.3	15.9	15.8
ATL	17.3	15.2	16.2	19.0	15.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Juan Barea	36	35	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.42	17	-9	26	16.7	15.3	1.49	17.8	16.3	1.50
Jason Terry	70	70	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.25	14	-6	20	16.0	15.2	0.83	17.1	16.2	0.87
Brendan Haywood	78	78	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.20	14	-6	20	15.9	15.5	0.32	16.9	16.6	0.23
Dirk Nowitzki	85	84	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.19	14	-6	20	16.0	14.6	1.37	16.9	16.2	0.67
Jason Kidd	85	85	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-6	20	15.5	17.7	-2.17	16.9	16.0	0.93
Eduardo Najera	20	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.07	-6	14	-20	15.5	15.9	-0.32	16.6	16.9	-0.23
Shawn Marion	62	62	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	12	-16	15.1	17.0	-1.89	16.2	17.9	-1.63
DeShawn Stevenson	54	52	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	0.17	-23	31	-54	15.8	15.8	0.06	16.2	17.5	-1.30

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	44	44	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.31	-1	-7	6	15.7	17.8	-2.07	15.4	16.1	-0.76
Joe Smith	15	15	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.02	6	-14	20	16.9	16.8	0.14	14.5	16.0	-1.58
Maurice Evans	20	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	-2	-4	18.9	16.3	2.63	13.9	16.3	-2.33
Zaza Pachulia	9	10	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	0	-8	20.4	16.4	4.00	15.4	15.9	-0.45
Joe Johnson	86	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-5	2	16.7	17.5	-0.82	15.8	15.6	0.19
Al Horford	92	92	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	-2	-4	16.6	20.2	-3.57	16.1	11.7	4.41
Josh Smith	77	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	2	-12	16.5	17.9	-1.37	16.0	15.2	0.76
Mike Bibby	72	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.67	2	-10	12	16.9	16.7	0.18	16.1	14.8	1.34
Jamal Crawford	70	70	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.25	-14	6	-20	17.1	16.2	0.87	16.0	15.2	0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.75,0.63,0.45,0.58,0.54,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 85, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.63,0.45,0.28,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.16,0.08,0	88.8%
LAL 109, SAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.96,0.91,0.73,0.54,0.38,0.22,0.1,0.04,0	88.0%
GSW 103, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.67,0.86,0.78,0.43,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.15,0,0	87.7%