NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	103		Excitement	8.7 [171]		MVP	Mason Plumlee (CHA): +25.9%
Charlotte Hornets	106		Comeback	7.7 [289]		LVP	Devonte' Graham (NOP): -16.1%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaxson Hayes	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.14,0.14	-0.04	0.18	-0.01	8	47%	0.23	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.07
Jonas Valanciunas	0.14	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.01	-0.02	18	65%	0.23	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,-0.01,0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.00	19	64%	0.20	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Jose Alvarado	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06	-0.02	0.08	0.00	8	44%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trey Murphy III	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Herbert Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	42%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Willy Hernangomez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tyrone Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	8	12%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.26	0.26	0.01	0.23	-0.02	7	61%	0.30	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	0.01	12	68%	0.25	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Miles Bridges	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0,0,-0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.00	0.13	-0.00	13	57%	0.22	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.06
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.11	0.00	6	50%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.02	9	71%	0.14	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.01	14	61%	0.13	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Cody Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	2	80%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	25.4	15.4	32.3	1.8	29.0	129.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +84.6%

NOP -9.7%

NOP -24.9%

NOP -9.4%

CHA +9.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	CHA	NBA	NOP	CHA	NBA
this game	16.2	14.1	14.5	108.4	111.6	110.8
season	14.7	14.0		110.9	112.9
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.8	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.6	16.6	15.6	18.2	16.2
CHA	13.6	14.1	13.8	15.2	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Murphy III	37	36	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-3	3	15.9	16.3	-0.38	14.4	13.9	0.50
Tyrone Wallace	17	17	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.14	-3	0	-3	17.3	15.9	1.36	15.1	13.9	1.19
Herbert Jones	37	39	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-3	3	16.6	15.9	0.64	13.7	14.4	-0.67
Willy Hernangomez	36	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	16.0	16.3	-0.24	14.7	13.8	0.94
Devonte' Graham	50	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	0	-3	16.3	16.1	0.21	13.7	14.6	-0.87
Jonas Valanciunas	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.34	0	-3	3	16.4	15.8	0.69	13.9	14.5	-0.65
Jose Alvarado	45	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-3	3	16.1	16.3	-0.21	14.6	13.7	0.87
Naji Marshall	53	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-1	-1	15.3	17.3	-1.98	13.9	14.5	-0.59
Jaxson Hayes	74	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	16.4	15.3	1.15	14.1	14.2	-0.14
CJ McCollum	68	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.54	-3	0	-3	16.1	16.4	-0.37	14.1	14.2	-0.13

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Washington	63	62	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.51	7	-4	11	14.1	14.1	0.02	16.5	15.5	0.97
Mason Plumlee	47	50	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.50	7	-4	11	13.9	14.4	-0.44	16.4	15.9	0.55
Miles Bridges	69	70	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.47	7	-4	11	14.0	14.6	-0.66	16.3	15.8	0.57
Terry Rozier	66	67	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.48	6	-3	9	14.4	13.5	0.89	16.7	14.9	1.82
LaMelo Ball	65	66	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-3	9	13.3	16.0	-2.72	15.7	17.3	-1.58
Jalen McDaniels	9	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	5	-7	13.9	14.2	-0.27	15.9	16.2	-0.33
Isaiah Thomas	28	27	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.16	2	1	1	14.4	14.0	0.31	16.4	16.1	0.27
Montrezl Harrell	41	39	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.09	-2	5	-7	14.6	13.8	0.83	16.2	16.2	-0.04
Kelly Oubre Jr.	32	30	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	8	-13	14.4	14.0	0.45	14.3	17.0	-2.75
Cody Martin	55	56	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.10	-11	14	-25	14.6	13.4	1.19	16.3	16.0	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.37,0.25,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 95, ATL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.14,0.24,0.39,0.47,0.64,0.45,0.74,1	92.7%
LAC 89, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.43,0.92,1	91.8%
CLE 89, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.46,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.26,0.36,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.2,0.27,0.45,0.37,0.55,0.59,1	91.6%