NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	8.9 [148]		MVP	Spencer Dinwiddie (DAL): +35.2%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	6.8 [109]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -21.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Dinwiddie	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.35	-0.00	0.35	-0.00	14	49%	0.41	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.06
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.11	0.18	-0.00	11	79%	0.35	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Luka Doncic	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.26,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	16	68%	0.37	5	-0.29	6	100%	0.04
Davis Bertans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Maxi Kleber	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.14	0.01	10	71%	0.26	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	4	100%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.09,0.06,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	12	50%	0.07	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.07
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	10	23%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	16	44%	-0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	0.00	23	41%	-0.13	2	-0.09	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.2	27.6	15.4	27.5	3.3	34.0	134.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +117.4%

BOS -26.7%

BOS -6.4%

BOS -41.9%

DAL +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	BOS	NBA	DAL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	14.5	101.1	95.8	110.8
season	15.6	14.9		112.4	112.2
opponent	14.7	14.5		105.7	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.0	14.9	14.8	15.5	15.3
BOS	14.7	14.5	15.2	15.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Dinwiddie	71	73	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.44	13	-10	23	15.6	14.2	1.40	15.4	13.8	1.66
Luka Doncic	75	77	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.50	7	-4	11	15.2	15.5	-0.25	15.1	14.8	0.31
Dorian Finney-Smith	75	75	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.58	3	0	3	15.5	14.5	1.01	15.1	15.0	0.11
Jalen Brunson	69	73	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-5	13	15.8	14.0	1.79	15.5	13.4	2.11
Maxi Kleber	57	60	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	-4	11	14.3	16.8	-2.44	14.5	16.0	-1.53
Davis Bertans	12	12	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	-2	7	15.2	15.3	-0.13	15.0	15.0	-0.05
Trey Burke	25	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	8	-13	14.0	15.8	-1.79	13.4	15.5	-2.11
Sterling Brown	7	7	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	7	-11	16.1	15.2	0.94	15.0	15.0	-0.04
Dwight Powell	44	44	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.03	-9	12	-21	16.2	14.5	1.74	15.7	14.5	1.27
Josh Green	35	36	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	-0.15	-10	13	-23	14.5	15.7	-1.21	14.2	15.5	-1.36

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Payton Pritchard	34	33	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.09	9	-12	21	15.5	14.8	0.76	15.2	15.3	-0.05
Grant Williams	46	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	3	-9	14.3	15.7	-1.46	13.8	16.6	-2.79
Derrick White	44	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	3	-9	14.9	15.2	-0.24	14.4	16.1	-1.65
Jayson Tatum	82	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.37	3	-6	9	15.2	14.0	1.22	15.3	14.9	0.49
Al Horford	63	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.47	0	-3	3	15.7	13.9	1.77	16.2	13.3	2.89
Robert Williams III	71	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-2	1	14.8	15.6	-0.75	15.4	14.9	0.49
Jaylen Brown	70	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.53	-3	0	-3	15.1	14.8	0.32	15.9	13.9	2.00
Marcus Smart	70	67	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.46	-11	8	-19	14.7	15.8	-1.10	15.2	15.5	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.8,0.54,0.84,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.69,0	91.4%
POR 82, WAS 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.76,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.78,0.67,0.43,0	89.5%
DAL 107, MIL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.64,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.86,0.16,0	89.4%