NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	9.0 [131]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +59.3%
Sacramento Kings	115		Comeback	3.7 [266]		LVP	Harrison Barnes (SAC): -13.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Omer Yurtseven	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.01	18	61%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08	-0.03	0.07	-0.03	22	46%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	13	54%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nik Stauskas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Silva	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	64%	0.11	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Tyler Herro	-0.00	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	23	46%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Guy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.01	11	58%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.59	0.59	0.09	0.50	-0.01	12	62%	0.66	2	-0.07	15	93%	0.18
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.21	0.21	0.16	0.04	0.00	18	70%	0.22	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	7	86%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.11	0.02	10	67%	0.18	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.08	-0.03	6	60%	0.11	2	-0.01	3	67%	-0.03
Chimezie Metu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	9	32%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.10	0.02	7	71%	0.03	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.3	26.4	14.4	23.4	2.4	35.3	127.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +56.6%

SAC +41.4%

MIA -30.5%

MIA -21.8%

SAC +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	15.5	13.9	14.5	114.1	118.6	110.8
season	14.9	14.0		112.0	109.2
opponent	14.6	14.9		114.4	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	14.2	15.9	17.0	15.5
SAC	11.9	13.0	14.7	16.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nik Stauskas	28	28	0.29	-0.79	1.09	-0.06	12	-14	26	13.7	16.2	-2.51	14.4	13.6	0.76
Haywood Highsmith	32	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.01	-2	0	-2	14.1	16.2	-2.10	14.1	13.7	0.40
Kyle Lowry	77	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.46	12	-14	26	15.4	16.0	-0.62	14.0	13.3	0.72
Chris Silva	30	28	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	9	-20	13.2	16.5	-3.32	12.9	14.2	-1.35
Omer Yurtseven	68	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.57	11	-13	24	16.7	12.9	3.76	14.3	12.8	1.48
Kyle Guy	48	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	2	-6	14.6	16.4	-1.77	14.0	13.7	0.21
Caleb Martin	68	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.26	-2	0	-2	16.0	14.4	1.64	13.7	14.3	-0.59
Jimmy Butler	73	71	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.41	-12	10	-22	16.3	13.4	2.84	13.6	14.5	-0.93
Tyler Herro	71	69	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.38	-14	12	-26	16.2	13.7	2.51	13.6	14.4	-0.76

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Aaron Fox	68	71	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.50	4	-2	6	14.0	13.5	0.48	16.2	13.7	2.46
Buddy Hield	68	68	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-5	12	14.4	12.6	1.76	15.4	15.8	-0.47
Tyrese Haliburton	71	69	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.45	-1	3	-4	13.7	14.2	-0.41	16.4	13.4	2.99
Harrison Barnes	59	61	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.44	-2	4	-6	13.5	14.5	-1.02	16.4	14.1	2.37
Damian Jones	58	60	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.52	-8	10	-18	13.8	13.9	-0.07	16.3	14.3	2.08
Davion Mitchell	40	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	-4	10	14.3	13.5	0.84	13.6	16.8	-3.17
Alex Len	35	35	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	-10	22	14.1	13.7	0.45	14.2	16.2	-1.99
Chimezie Metu	31	33	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.07	-1	3	-4	14.3	13.7	0.64	13.4	16.6	-3.14
Tristan Thompson	4	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	4	-6	11.7	13.9	-2.20	14.5	15.6	-1.06
Maurice Harkless	10	10	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	4	-6	15.9	13.6	2.28	12.6	15.8	-3.24
Marvin Bagley III	41	44	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	5	-8	12.2	15.1	-2.88	15.9	15.2	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.53,0.41,0.45,0.66,0.53,0.79,0.91,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, CHH 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.58,0.57,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.4,0.66,0.62,0.85,0.85,0.98,1	92.5%
ORL 83, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.85,0.94,1,1	92.4%
VAN 81, ATL 84	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.36,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.47,0.66,0.6,0.39,0.72,0.68,0.92,1	91.8%